首先分析了环境规制对制造业创新转型能力的影响机制。分析表明,环境规制的实施对企业理论技术创新的影响具有“正负双重效应”,而且其发挥效应的大小还与行业污染强度存在密切联系。同时,理论创新成果数量、企业自身污染属性和技术转化难度成为环境规制推动企业将理论创新成果转化为产品创新能力的约束条件。在此基础上,构建了一个环境规制对我国制造业创新转型升级影响效应的计量分析模型,并采用2005—2014年我国制造业大中型企业的行业面板数据进行实证分析,得出了以下主要结论：①实行更加严格的环境规制对推动我国制造业的创新转型必然具有显著的“激励”效应。②环境规制对我国制造业创新转型的推动作用与制造业自身的污染属性以及其所处的创新转型阶段密切相关。③目前环境规制对推动我国制造业转型升级成功的“合力效应”尚不明显。

First, this paper analyses how environmental regulation influence the innovation and transformation ability of manufacturing industry. It turns out that the implementation of environmental regulation exerts a double effects of “positive and negative ” on theoretical technology innovation of enterprises and the effect degree is closely related to the intensity of industrial pollution. Meanwhile, environmental regulation promote the transformation from theoretical innovation achievements into product innovation ability, which is decided by the quantity of theoretical innovation achievements and influenced by the pollution intensity of enterprises and difficulty degree of technical transformation. Based on the previous analyses, the paper establishes an econometrics model on the influence of environmental regulation on innovation and transformation of manufacturing industry. Selecting panel data from 2005 to 2014 of large and medium-sized enterprises of China’s manufacturing industry. The main conclusions include: 1)A stricter implementation of environmental regulation will certainly promote the innovation and transformation of China's manufacturing industry. 2)This promotion effect is closely related to manufacturing industry’s pollution intensity and the stage of innovation and transformation. 3) In the current situation, the "synergistic effect" of environmental regulation on transforming and upgrading China's manufacturing industry is not obvious.