以浙江省65个县域为研究对象,采用Bootstrap-DEA测度其2003—2015年的旅游效率,借助空间变差函数和马尔科夫链等探究浙江县域旅游效率的空间格局演变特征,并结合地理探测器模型分析空间格局演变的影响因素。结果表明：浙江县域旅游效率处于较高水平,呈“双M”型变化规律,整体非均衡性较弱;空间非均衡性在进一步扩大,并出现“逆市区化”现象,效率低值区呈西南—东北迁移趋势;旅游效率总体呈正向空间自相关,高效率和低效率县市在空间上趋于分散;县域旅游效率空间变异的随机成份先减小后增大,各方向上均质性差异明显,空间格局演化具有延续性和规律性。县域旅游效率具有时间稳定性,以渐变变化为主;以杭州、宁波、嘉兴和温州市区为中心的地区旅游效率水平类型向下转移明显,以武义为中心的县市则明显向上转移,区域旅游效率呈大范围下降和小范围增长的俱乐部趋同特征。县域旅游效率格局演变是经济发展水平、旅游资源禀赋、县域市场规模、城镇化水平、区位交通和政府宏观调控等因素共同作用的结果,影响因素间存在明显的强度差异和空间异质性,其演进可以划分为经济推动型、区域中心型、资源推动型和交通推动型四种类型。

Transformation, upgrading, improving quality and efficiency are required by present situation of tourism industry. Meanwhile county-scale tourism has become development trends of tourism industry and therefore its efficiency research deserves due attention. This paper measures the tourism efficiencies of 65 counties in Zhejiang Province from 2003 to 2015 by using the Bootstrap-DEA Model. The spatial pattern of tourism efficiencies of these counties are explored by means of Spatial Variogram Function and Markov Model, and the influencing factors of spatial pattern evolution are analyzed by using the Geodetector Model. The main conclusions are shown as follows. Firstly, the tourism efficiencies of these counties in Zhejiang Province are at a high level, and the mean of tourism efficiencies is 0.669 during the study period which shows a change pattern of "double M". The coefficients of variations are stable between 0.303 and 0.440, and the overall imbalance is weak. Spatial non-equilibrium is further expanded, and tourism investment in some areas has not been adjusted due to the diversion of tourism demand. The development of tourism efficiency has begun to appear the phenomenon of counter-urbanization. Those areas of low efficiencies show a southwest-northeast migration trend. Tourism efficiencies of all of counties are overall positive spatial autocorrelation, high efficiencies and low efficiencies of counties tend to be scattered in space. Secondly, the randomness of spatial variability of these tourism efficiencies of counties is reduced and then increased, the spillover effect of the core urban area on the surrounding counties is gradually strengthened. The intensity of interaction in the tourism production process is increasing continuously. The degree of homogenization in the whole direction is relatively good. The homogeneity of each direction is obvious, and the evolution of spatial pattern is continuous and regular. Thirdly, the county-scale tourism efficiencies are temporal stable which featured by the gradual change. The level of tourism efficiencies of those regions of Hangzhou, Ningbo, Jiaxing and Wenzhou significantly moves down, while these regions centered in Wuyi county shift upward clearly. The regional tourism efficiency has the club convergence characteristics of wide-scale decline and small-scale growth. Finally, the pattern evolution of county-scale tourism efficiencies is the result of the combination of economic development level, tourism resource endowment, county-scale market size, urbanization level, location transportation and government macro-control, and there are obvious differences in intensity and spatial heterogeneity between those factors. The counties of Zhejiang Province can be divided into four types: economic push type, regional center type, resource promotion type and traffic promotion type by their evolutions of tourism efficiencies. It is of great practical significance to explore the county-scale tourism efficiency in the background of the continuous improvement of the status of China's tourism industry, the continuous expansion of the scale of tourism investment and the vigorous development of rural tourism. These results of this paper could clarify the path and direction of county-scale tourism development, and provide practical reference for the regional tourism industry-related policies making.