以我国291个地级市为研究单元,运用重心模型刻画了1996—2015年我国经济重心的时空演变轨迹,并采用格兰杰因果检验分析了经济重心变动与人口分布重心、三次产业重心之间的因果关系。结果表明：①20年间,我国经济重心地理坐标一直在豫皖交界地区变动,移动轨迹沿东北→西南→西北→西南方向运动,整体向西移动了31.93 km,移动速度呈现先慢后快的特征。②人口重心位于经济重心的西侧,前期（1999—2004年）两者存在一定程度的偏离,后期（2004—2015年）偏离程度有所缩小。③产业结构对经济重心迁移影响显著。第一产业重心与经济重心的移动方向不一致,但第二产业重心与经济重心的变动轨迹具有高度一致性,是我国经济重心迁移的主要驱动力,而第三产业重心与经济重心的空间距离一直保持在35 km以内,近两年第三产业对经济重心迁移的影响越发明显。④经济重心演变轨迹与国家宏观区域调控政策有关,但具有时间滞后性;与经济重心相比,人口重心对国家区域宏观政策的响应更为及时。

The economic center of gravity migration can reveal the temporal and spatial evolution of economic pattern, and is often used to study the direction of the national or regional economic development. Taking the 291 prefecture-level cities in China as the research unit, this paper depicts of the temporal and spatial evolution of China's economic center of gravity from 1996 to 2015 by used gravity model, and analyzes the causal relationship which the economic center of gravity changes and the population center of gravity distribution and the three industries center of gravity by used the granger causality test. The results show that: (1) In the past 20 years, the geographical coordinates of China's economic center of gravity have been changing in Anhui and Henan Province border region, the movement trajectory moving along the northeast→southwest→northwest→southwest direction, moving 31.93 kilometers to the west, moving speed showed the first slow after the fast features. (2) Population center of gravity is located on the west side of the economic center of gravity. In the early period (1999-2004) there was a certain degree of deviation, and the degree of deviation was narrowed in the later period (2004-2015). (3)The industrial structure has a significant impact on the economic center of gravity migration. The movement direction of primary industry's center of gravity is different from the economic center of gravity. The change trajectory of the second industry center of gravity is highly consistent with the economic center of gravity, which is the main driving force of China's economic center of gravity migration. The distance between the tertiary industry center of gravity and the economy center of gravity has been kept within 35km, and the influence of the tertiary industry on the relocation of the economic center of gravity has become more and more obvious in the past two years. (4) The evolution of economic center of gravity is related to the national macro-regional control policy, but there is a lag in time. Compared with the economic center of gravity, the population center of gravity response the national macroeconomic policy more timely.