基于京津冀150个县市单元2000—2012年的面板数据,通过构建人口—土地—经济城镇化的多指标评价体系、探索性空间数据分析以及耦合协调分析的方法,对京津冀地区人口、土地、经济城镇化的发展阶段、时空演变特征及空间集聚模式加以分析,并进一步探索了城镇化子系统的耦合协调类型及其空间分布规律。提出如下结论：①市辖区的人口城镇化发展滞后,未来发展应当严格控制新增建设用地,更加注重人的城镇化,着重解决城市居民的生活环境及居住质量问题;②县域地区土地开发潜力巨大,但开发动力不足,应当以新型城镇化为契机,各县域结合自身资源禀赋,培育具有内生比较优势的产业,主动承接京津资源,推动经济发展与土地建设;③促进京津冀内部的交通一体化和公共基础服务均等化,促进京津冀资源要素的自由流转和市场一体化,减少京津对河北以及市辖区对县域的虹吸效应。
Based on the panel data of 150 counties/municipal districts in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2000 to 2012, this paper constructs an indicator system representing population, land and economic urbanization, using exploratory spatial data analysis and coupled coordination analysis method. The population, land and economic urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are analyzed in terms of their stages of development, characteristics of spatial, temporal evolution, and spatial agglomeration patterns. Coupling coordination types and spatial distribution patterns of urbanization subsystems are further explored. This paper puts forward the following conclusions: The urbanization of population in the municipal districts lags behind. In the future, development should strictly control the newly-increasing construction land and pay more attention to people's urbanization, focusing on the living environment and living quality of urban residents. Counties’ land development potential is huge, but the development of motivation is not enough. The new urbanization should be taken as an opportunity, and counties should cultivate their industries with endogenous comparative advantages in light of their own natural resource endowments, proactively undertake Beijing-Tianjin resources, promoting economic development and land construction; Promoting the traffic integration and the equalization of public basic services, promoting the free circulation and market integration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and thus reducing the siphoning effect of Beijing and Tianjin on Hebei and municipal districts on counties.
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