以1984—2013年中国PPP的省域面板数据为基础,描述和分析了中国PPP项目发展的时空格局和特征,并利用地理探测器对PPP发展空间分布差异的影响因素进行识别和测度。研究发现：1984年以来中国PPP发展历程可分为四个阶段,PPP项目总体呈现波动增长趋势;空间上PPP项目分布存在显著的非均衡性,总体呈现东部多中西部少的格局;GDP、城镇化率、财政收入和资金总量等因素通过交互作用共同影响了中国PPP的发展,但在影响程度上存在差异。该研究为开展PPP相关研究提供了新的视角与方法,也为中国PPP可持续发展提供了有益启示,同时为PPP模式的宏观决策提供了参考,建议PPP政策的制定和实施要立足中国发展不平衡不充分的现状,因地施策。
As a delivery model in urban infrastructure, PPP has been widely used worldwide and also has a long application history in China. To achieve the sustainable development for PPP, it is necessary to review the development process of PPP and learn the lessons of PPP in China. This paper in first establish the PPP projects database through open search engine, and then explore the spatio-temporal pattern of PPP in China during last 30 years. At last, this paper identifies, measures and analyzes the drivers of PPP in China. The result indicates that China's PPP development have exist four stages with the characteristics of spatial differentiation. The space heterogeneity of PPP development is depend on the interact of GDP, urbanization, capital sum and fiscal revenue. This paper tries to helping Chinese national and local governments make more reasonable policies, as well as laying foundation for further empirical research of PPP in China.
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