粮食生产中化肥施用量提高带来的环境问题日益严重,要减少化肥的施用量首先要理清化肥施用的影响因素。利用空间Durbin模型（SDM）,设置邻接空间、地理距离、经济空间三种权重矩阵,采用Spatial Regression Model Partial Derivatives方法,以2004—2016年省级面板数据为研究样本,分析了我国化肥施用强度分布的空间特征及影响因素。研究表明：①化肥施用强度具有显著的区域差异性和空间依赖性;②劳动力投入、农业技术人员数量、化肥的销售价格对化肥投入存在抑制作用,粮食销售价格、各省经济发达程度、农民的文化水平对化肥投入存在促进作用;③未来我国化肥减量的压力比较大,压力主要在粮食主产区。
The environmental problems caused by the increase of chemical fertilizer application in grain production are becoming more and more serious. In order to reduce the amount of chemical fertilizer application, the first step is to clarify the influencing factors of chemical fertilizer application. Spatial Regression Model Partial Derivatives method was used to analyze the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of fertilizer application intensity distribution in China based on provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016. It can provide empirical evidence for national policy of reducing fertilizer consumption. The results show that: 1) fertilizer application intensity has significant regional differences and spatial dependence; 2) labor input, the number of agricultural technicians, and the selling price of fertilizer have inhibitory effects on fertilizer input, and the sellingprice of grain, economic development of provinces, and farmer cultural quality promote fertilizer input; 3) in the future, the pressure of chemical fertilizer reduction in China is relatively heavy and mainly in the majorgrain producing areas.
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