为分析云南省市县尺度下公路运输系统与城镇化发展的相互作用机理,将公路运输系统划分为公路交通供给和公路运输需求子系统,利用耦合协调模型、空间计量模型、地理空间分析技术,对地级市和县(区)尺度下公路交通供给与城镇化、公路运输需求与城镇化之间的空间耦合协调关系进行分析,并通过OLS模型、SLM模型和SEM模型探讨了市县尺度下公路运输系统和城镇化之间的相互作用机理。研究发现:①公路交通供给与城镇化的耦合协调程度高于公路运输需求与城镇化,滇中城市群和滇西中部地区是协调发展的优势区域,路网规模不足、结构欠合理和布局不完善是造成其他区域失衡发展的主要成因。②公路交通供给呈块状、团状空间发展态势,初步形成以昆明—红河、大理为中心的“双核心”空间结构。公路客运高需求区主要分布在昆明—大理—丽江客运通道,货运高需求区则集分布中于资源优势型和工业主导型市县;城镇化发展的空间分布与等级公路网络空间布局基本吻合。③地级市尺度下,公路运输需求与城镇化存在双向促进作用,运输需求每增加1个单位,城镇化发展水平可提高0.089个单位,高等级公路建设和客货运输需求提升有助于当地城镇化的发展。④县(区)尺度下,公路运输系统和城镇化发展的正向空间溢出效应要高于地级市尺度,货物运输需求每增加1个单位,城镇化发展水平可提高0.064个单位,充分调动县(区)的货物运输需求是提升县域城镇化水平的有效措施。
Taking Yunnan Province as a case study and analyzing the interaction mechanism between transportation system and urbanization system on the cities and counties (districts), this paper applies the coupling coordination model, spatial econometric model and spatial analysis method to analyzing the spatial coupling coordination relationship between urbanization system and highway transportation system which is divided into highway transport demand and supply subsystem. The OLS model, SLM model and SEM model are used to investigate the interaction mechanism between highway transportation system and urbanization system at different scale. The results show that: (1) The degree of coordination between highway transportation supply and urbanization system is higher than that of highway transportation demand and urbanization system. The urban agglomeration in central Yunnan and the central and western Yunnan are the dominant areas of the coordinated development of highway traffic supply and urbanization. Insufficient road network scale, unreasonable structure and imperfect layout lead to the unbalanced development. (2) The development of highway transportation supply presents the trend block space, and initially forms the "dual core" space structure centered on Kunming-Honghe and Dali. The high demand area of passenger transport is mainly distributed in the passenger corridor of Kunming-Dali-Lijiang, and the high demand area of highway freight traffic is distributed in the resource-dominated and industry-dominates counties (districts). The spatial distribution of urbanization development is basically consistent with the spatial distribution of grade highway network. (3) At the prefecture level, the highway transportation demand and urbanization have the bidirectional promotion function, the transportation demand adds 1 unit, the urbanization development level may raise 0.089 unit. The urbanization development relies heavily on the construction of high-grade highway and the demand of passenger and freight transportation. (4) At county (district) level, the spatial spillover effect of highway transportation system and urban development is higher than that of the prefecture level. With the increase of 1 unit of highway freight transportation demand, the development level of urbanization can be increased by 0.064 unit, and it is an effective measure to improve the level of urbanization in counties by fully mobilizing the transportation demand of counties (districts).
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