采用ArcGIS技术和空间计量经济学模型,对我国地级行政区1998—2015年PM2.5污染时空演变特征进行分析,并对PM2.5污染的空间自相关性及影响PM2.5污染的因素进行经验识别。结果表明：①1998—2013年PM2.5年均值整体处于上升趋势且呈阶段性波动特征,但2013年之后有下降趋势;②PM2.5具有明显的空间自相关特征,呈高—高集聚和低—低集聚特征;③基于IPAT模型的PM2.5污染影响因素分析显示,PM2.5污染不仅受本地区的经济社会因素影响,而且还受到邻近地区的PM2.5影响;④在地级市层面上,PM2.5污染满足EKC假说,即随着经济发展水平的提高,地区污染水平呈现先上升后下降的倒U型曲线特征。最后,在时空演变和空间计量分析的基础上,提出治理PM2.5污染的政策建议。
In this paper, we use ArcGIS software to analysis the spatial-temporal evolution of PM2.5 in China's prefecture-level cities from 1998 to 2015, and use the spatial econometric model to analysis the spatial autocorrelation of haze pollution and empirical identification of influencing factors of PM2.5 pollution. The results show that: (1) during the period of 1998 to 2013, the average value of PM2.5 is increasing and the trend of fluctuation is fluctuating in the middle stage, but PM2.5 shows a decreasing trend after 2013; (2) PM2.5 has obvious spatial autocorrelation characteristics, which is characterized by high-high and low-low agglomeration of the pollution of PM2.5; (3) The results show that the PM2.5 pollution is not only affected by the economic and social factors of the region, but also affected by PM2.5 pollution of the neighboring areas, under the IPAT model; (4) The PM2.5 pollution meets the EKC hypothesis that the level of PM2.5 pollution is characterized by the inverted U-curve with the level of economic development. Finally, on the basis of temporal and spatial evolution and spatial econometric analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to PM2.5 pollution treatment.
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