文章基于产业融合理论、投入产出理论及旅游效应论,构建文旅融合发展效率理论框架,并运用EBM模型、三维核密度估计、空间马尔可夫链和面板空间杜宾模型等方法,对2000—2019年中国31个省份文旅融合发展效率动态演化特征及影响因素展开实证研究。结果表明：①中国文旅融合发展效率呈波动上升态势,存在“东部>中部>西部”的区域分异;核密度分布曲线总体表现为“双峰”形态,其中东部地区为“双峰”形态,中部和西部地区为“单峰”形态。②中国文旅融合发展效率空间集聚态势显著并在前后十年均具有较强的时空锁定特征,虽难以在短期内实现跨越式增长,但可依托空间溢出效应逐渐实现协同提升。③消费需求、科技创新与对外开放能有效提升本地与邻近区域文旅融合发展效率;政府调控能提升本地区域文旅融合发展效率,其空间溢出效应虽为正但并不明显;交通设施对本地与邻近区域文旅融合效率产生负向影响,劳动供给的空间溢出效应虽为负但并不显著。
Based on the industrial integration, input-output and tourism-effect theory, this article constructs a theoretical framework for the culture and tourism integration development efficiency, and use EBM model,three-dimensional kernel density estimation,spatial Markov chain and panel spatial Durbin model to conduct an empirical study on the dynamic evolution and influencing factors of culture and tourism integration development efficiency in 31 provincial-level regions of China from 2000 to 2019. It's found that: 1) Cultural and tourism integration development efficiency in China shows a fluctuating upward trend, there exists a regional differentiation,which is higher in the east of China, followed by the central China and the west of China respectively. The distribution curve of kernel density is generally in the form of "double peaks", it shows the pattern of "double peaks" in the eastern region and "single-peak" pattern in the central and western regions. 2) The spatial agglomeration trend of the integration development efficiency of Chinese cultural and tourism is significant and has a strong spatio-temporal locking feature in the past ten years,although it is difficult to achieve leapfrog growth in a short period of time,but can rely on the spatial spillover effect to gradually realize the synergistic enhancement. 3) Consumption demand,technological innovation and opening-up can effectively improve the cultural and tourism integration development efficiency between local and neighboring regions. Government regulation can improve the cultural and tourism integration development efficiency between local and neighboring regions,and its spatial spillover effect, although positive,is not obvious. Transportation facilities have a negative impact on the cultural and tourism integration development efficiency between local and neighboring regions,and the spatial spillover effect of labor supply,although negative,is not significant.
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