文章构建了多维度地缘经济联系强度评价指标体系,运用多边形法、向量和法和灰色关联分析法比较分析了中俄与中亚国家地缘经济联系强度演变,剖析了中俄两国与中亚国家地缘经济联系强度的影响因素。结果表明：①中国与中亚国家地缘经济联系整体强度呈波动增长态势,俄罗斯与中亚国家地缘经济整体联系强度基本保持稳定,俄罗斯与中亚国家整体地缘经济联系强度高于中国。②地缘政治在中俄与中亚国家地缘经济联系中的作用下降,贸易和交通在中俄与中亚国家地缘经济联系中的地位上升。中国与中亚国家的地缘经济联系由贸易、交通、地缘政治共同主导逐步转为贸易和投资共同主导,俄罗斯与中亚国家地缘政治联系由旅游、贸易、地缘政治共同主导转变为贸易、旅游、交通共同主导。③中俄与中亚国家地缘经济联系强度均呈北高南低阶梯格局,但俄罗斯与哈萨克斯坦以南4国地缘经济联系强度空间格局波动起伏较大。④资源禀赋是中俄与中亚国家地缘经济联系强度演变的共同重要驱动力,中国与中亚国家地缘经济联系比俄罗斯更依赖市场规模,俄罗斯与中亚国家地缘经济联系对经济发展水平和政治稳定性比中国更为敏感。
This paper constructs a multidimensional evaluation index of geo-economic linkage intensity,uses the methods of polygon method,vector sum method,and grey relational analysis to comparatively analyze the evolution of geo-economic linkage intensity between China,Russia and Central Asian countries,and its the influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The geo-economic linkage intensity between China and Central Asian countries overall shows a trend of fluctuating growth,while the geo-economic linkage intensity between Russia and Central Asian countries is basically stable. The geo-economic linkage intensity between Russia and Central Asian countries is higher than that of China-Russia. 2) The role of geopolitics in the geo-economic linkages between China,Russia and Central Asian countries has declined,while the role of trade and transportation in the geo-economic linkages between China,Russia and Central Asian countries has risen. The geo-economic linkages between China and Central Asian countries have gradually shifted from being jointly dominated by trade,transportation,and geopolitics to being jointly dominated by trade and investment,while the geo-economic linkages between Russia and Central Asian countries have shifted from being jointly dominated by tourism,trade,and geopolitics to being jointly dominated by trade,tourism,and transportation. 3) The geo-economic linkage intensities of China-Central Asian countries and Russia-Central Asian countries both show the pattern which is higher in north of Central Asia and lower in the south of Central Asia,but the geo-economic linkage intensities between Russia and the four countries in the south of Kazakhstan fluctuate greatly. 4) Resource endowment is a common and important driving force for the evolution of the geo-economic linkage intensity between China,Russia and Central Asian countries. The geo-economic linkages between China and Central Asian countries are more dependent on market size compared with Russia,and the geo-economic linkages between Russia and Central Asian countries are more sensitive to the level of economic development and political stability than that of China.
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