近年来中国城市收缩现象日益突出,客观准确识别城市收缩现象并探究其影响因素,对于新型城镇化建设具有重要意义。文章以2011—2018年中国286个地级及以上城市为研究对象,通过构建城市收缩指数测度指标体系,从功能规模借用和绩效规模借用的视角,对城市面板数据采用双固定效应模型、空间杜宾模型和面板门限模型等方法,实证检验了城市收缩的影响因素。研究发现：①中国城市在时间维度和空间维度上都出现增长与收缩并存现象,不同类型收缩城市数量、收缩程度和区域分布都存在显著差异。②功能规模借用和绩效规模借用2种效应在城市群和非城市群中均表现出异质性,并存在“空间溢出效应”现象。功能层面以规模借用形式存在,在全国范围内效应都显著;绩效层面则以集聚阴影形式存在,在非城市群中效应不显著。③借用规模因城市规模不同对城市收缩呈现非线性影响,功能规模借用水平表现为大城市>小城市>中型城市,而在绩效层面中小城市表现为集聚阴影,大城市则表现为绩效规模借用。
In recent years,the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has become increasingly prominent in China. It is of great significance to objectively and accurately identify the phenomenon of urban shrinkage and explore its influencing factors for the construction of new urbanization. This study meticulously examines this phenomenon by focusing on 286 prefecture-level cities of China from 2011 to 2018. It constructs comprehensive evaluation system of urban shrinkage,empirically tests the impact factors of urban shrinkage using the methods of the two-way fixed effects model,spatial Durbin model,and panel threshold model from the perspective of borrowed size. It's found that: 1) Chinese cities which exhibit a unique duality shrink and grow simultaneously within the same geographical confines. Moreover,shrinking cities are not a homogeneous group,it exhibits significant disparities in terms of their numbers,shrinkage degree,and regional distribution. 2) The borrowed function effect and the borrowed performance effect both show heterogeneity in urban agglomerations and non-urban agglomerations,and there is a phenomenon of "spatial spillover effect". The functional level exists in the form of scale borrowing,and the effect is significant throughout the country. The performance level exists in the form of agglomeration shadow,and the effect is not significant in non-urban agglomerations. 3) Borrowed size has a non-linear effect on urban shrinkage due to different city sizes. The order of functional scale borrowing level from high to low is big-sized cities,small-sized cities,medium-sized cities. Small and medium-sized cities show agglomeration shadow,while big-sized cities show performance scale borrowing at the performance level.
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