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经济地理 >

2024 , Vol. 44 >Issue 1: 22 - 31

DOI: https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.01.003

区域经济与理论方法

“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性研究

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  • 1.中国科学院 地理科学与资源研究所/区域可持续发展分析与模拟实验室,中国 北京 100101;
    2.中国科学院大学 资源与环境学院,中国 北京 100049;
    3.华东师范大学 地理科学学院,中国 上海 200062
陈伟（1989—）,男,副研究员,硕士生导师,研究方向为经济地理、城市与区域发展。E-mail：chenw@igsnrr.ac.cn
※刘志高（1974—）,男,博士,副研究员,硕士生导师,研究方向为演化经济地理学。E-mail：liuzhigao@igsnrr.ac.cn

收稿日期: 2023-06-05

  修回日期: 2024-10-28

  网络出版日期: 2024-06-03

基金资助

第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目（2019QZKK1007）; 国家自然科学基金项目（42130508、42230406）

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Resilience Evolution of the Trade Networks in Regions along the Belt and Road

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  • 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research & Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;
    2. College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;
    3. School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China

Received date: 2023-06-05

  Revised date: 2024-10-28

  Online published: 2024-06-03

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摘要

文章借鉴复杂网络理论内涵,综合运用多种网络分析方法,构建测度贸易网络韧性的分析框架,从节点韧性和结构韧性2个维度对“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性开展综合测度,探讨其演变过程、发展特征和趋向。研究发现：①“一带一路”沿线各国贸易联系日趋紧密,贸易网络密度不断提升,不均衡态势逐渐显现,贸易网络拓扑结构呈现由松散向紧密发展、由多极向单极演变的趋势;②“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络节点韧性具有明显异质性,并处于动态演化中,逐渐形成以中国、俄罗斯、印度、土耳其等国家为强韧核心的贸易格局;③综合考虑连通性、抗毁性、恢复性和稳健性4个维度,随着时间演化,“一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络结构韧性有所提升,网络结构异质性不断增强。未来,需进一步强化沿线国家间经贸合作,提升贸易网络连通性和稳健性,促进“一带一路”沿线地区贸易畅通走向更高水平和更宽维度。

关键词： 贸易网络; 网络韧性; 结构韧性; 复杂网络; “一带一路”

本文引用格式

陈伟, 王芯芮, 龙燕, 赵晞泉, 刘志高 . “一带一路”沿线地区贸易网络韧性研究[J]. 经济地理, 2024 , 44(1) : 22 -31 . DOI: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2024.01.003

Abstract

On the basis of complex network theory,this paper uses various network analysis methods to build an analytical framework for measuring the trade network resilience,and conducts a comprehensive measurement of the trade network resilience in regions along the Belt and Road from two dimensions of node resilience and structural resilience,and explores the evolution process and development trend. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The trade links are getting closer in countries(regions) along the Belt and Road,the trade network density is increasing,the unbalanced situation is gradually emerging,and the trade network topology is changing from loose to close,and from multipolar to unipolar. 2) The node resilience of the trade network has evident heterogeneity in countries(regions) along the Belt and Road and is in dynamic evolution,it gradually forms a trade pattern with China,Russia,India,Turkey,and other countries as the strong core. 3) Considering the four dimensions of connectivity,invulnerability,recovery and robustness,the structural resilience of the trade network has been improved in countries(regions) along the Belt and Road,and the network structure heterogeneity has been enhanced. Therefore,in the future,it is necessary to strengthen further the economic and trade cooperation among the countries(regions) along the Belt and Road, enhance the connectivity and robustness of the trade network,and promote the trade interconnectivity to a higher level and broader dimension.

Key words： trade network; network resilience; structural resilience; complex network; the Belt and Road

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