立足“大食物观”构建了粮食安全评价指标体系,基于2010—2021年中国31个省份的面板数据,运用熵值法、核密度估计、空间自相关和Markov链对中国粮食安全水平进行评价并分析其时空演进特征。结果表明：①2010—2021年中国粮食安全水平总体上呈现增长态势,但增长速度缓慢,生产安全、生态安全、经济安全、消费安全、流通安全5个子系统存在发展不均衡的问题,生产安全对粮食安全水平的提升贡献率最高。②全国、粮食主产区、非主产区粮食安全水平均表现出“绝对水平提升、相对差异缩小”的特征,粮食主产区的粮食安全水平在空间上表现出更严重的多级分化现象,非粮食主产区初始粮食安全水平分布较为集中但后续发展速度存在较大差异。③中国的粮食安全水平分布具有显著的空间集聚特征,各省市粮食安全水平之间存在明显的空间正相关关系,但这种相关性正逐渐减小。④粮食安全水平存在俱乐部趋同现象,呈现稳态性,不同粮食安全水平类型之间转移概率较低,各地区在总体粮食安全水平中的分布位置比较稳定。基于研究结论,从重构粮食生产空间、培育农业特色产业、完善粮食流通体系等方面提出了政策建议。
This paper constructs the evaluation index system of food security under the background of the big food concept. Based on the data of 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2010 to 2021,it measure the food security level,and analyze its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics using the methods of entropy,kernel density estimation,spatial autocorrelation and Markov chain. The results show that: 1) The overall level of food security in China showed growth trend from 2010 to 2021,but the growth rate was relatively slow. The five subsystems of production safety,ecological safety,economic safety,consumption safety,and circulation safety had imbalanced development problems,the production safety had the highest contribution to the improvement of food security level. 2) The food security level of the whole country,major grain producing areas,and non-major grain producing areas showed the same characteristic of absolute level improvement and relative difference reduction. There was a more serious multi-level differentiation phenomenon in the spatial level of food security in major grain producing areas. The initial distribution of food security level in non-major grain producing areas was relatively concentrated,but there were significant differences in the subsequent development speed. 3) The distribution of China's food security level showed a significant spatial agglomeration feature,and there was a significant spatial positive correlation between the food security levels of each province,but this correlation was gradually decreasing. 4) There was a phenomenon of club convergence in food security levels,showing a steady state. The probability of transfer between different types of food security levels is relatively low,and the distribution position of each region in the overall food security level was relatively stable. Based on the research conclusions,it puts forward policy recommendations from the perspectives of reconstructing grain production space,cultivating agricultural characteristic industries,and improving the grain circulation system.
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