文章以河南省为例,从缓冲能力、学习能力和自组织能力3个维度建立生计韧性评价指标体系,并基于2014和2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据采用综合指数法与多元线性回归比较分析了不同时期、不同生计策略条件下农户生计韧性的差异及其影响因素。结果表明：①2014—2018年生计策略选择存在严重的两极分化,其中纯农型、务工主导型和工资经营型农户是河南省农户生计策略选择和发展的主要方向。②农户生计韧性整体处于中低水平,增长速度慢且增幅小,表现为生计资本越稳定,生计韧性指数越高。随着时间的变化,生计韧性指数呈现上升趋势,内部维度层能力失衡。③交通便捷程度、政府扶持、邻里关系、家庭劳动力占比、信息获取、户主受教育程度、教育投入等核心因素对不同类型农户生计韧性的影响强度各不相同。生计策略的选择处于动态变化之中,优化农户生计方式对生计韧性的提升具有显著效应。
Taking Henan Province as an example,the article establishes a livelihood resilience evaluation index system from three dimensions of buffering capacity, learning capacity and self-organizing capacity, and analyzes the differences in farmers' livelihood resilience and their influencing factors in different periods and under different conditions of livelihood strategies based on the data of the China Family Panel Studies in 2014 and 2018 by using the composite index and the multiple linear regression. The results show that: 1) There is a serious polarization in the choice of livelihood strategies from 2014 to 2018, in which purely agricultural, labor-led and wage-operated farmers are the main directions of the choice and development of the livelihood strategies of farm households in Henan Province. 2) The overall livelihood resilience of farm households is at a low to medium level, with a slow and small growth rate, which is manifested in the fact that the more stable the livelihood capital is, the higher the livelihood resilience index is. With the change of time, the livelihood resilience index shows an upward trend, and the internal dimension layer capacity imbalance. 3) The core factors such as transportation convenience, government support,neighborhood,household labor share,access to information,education level of the head of the household, and education investment, have different impact on the livelihood resilience of different types of farm households. The choice of livelihood strategies is in dynamic change,and the optimization of farmers' livelihood approach has a significant effect on the enhancement of livelihood resilience.
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