文章基于2010和2020年分县人口普查数据,运用空间自相关分析和老龄化指数增长模式等方法探究长三角城市群县域人口老龄化的时空变化特征。在此基础上,根据“老年人空间集聚说”分析非老年人与老年人的动态迁移来把握老龄化地区的整体变化,并采用结构方程模型厘清人口老龄化影响因子之间的关系,探究长三角城市群县域人口老龄化的影响机理。结果表明：①2010—2020年长三角城市群老龄化程度加深,形成4个重度老龄化阶段县域集聚区,“区—县逆二元结构”凸显;苏皖半环形老龄化增速带和浙皖团块状老龄化增速带共同推动城市群老龄化进程;老年人口密度空间集聚趋势加强且高密度区域主要集中在东部市辖区。②长三角城市群人口迁移配置总体使区域老龄化程度加深,且除替代集聚外均表现出较强的空间集聚性,高度老龄化区域是特定迁移配置主导的结果。③从区域经济水平、社会保障、自然因素、定居成本4个方面剖析了长三角城市群人口老龄化时空演变的驱动机制,发现自然因素、社会因素和经济因素通过影响区域人口净迁移率、青壮年人口净迁移率、老年人口净迁移率和自然增长率对区域人口老龄化进程施加影响。
Based on the sub-county population census data in 2010 and 2020,This paper explores the spatial and temporal evolution of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration using the spatial autocorrelation analysis and the aging exponential growth mode. According to the McCarthy's the spatial agglomeration of the elderly,it analyzes the dynamic migration of non-elderly people and elderly people to grasp the overall change of the aging area,uses the structural equation model to clarify the path relationship between the influencing factors of population aging,and explores the mechanism of population aging at the county level in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. The results show that: 1) From 2010 to 2020,the aging degree has deepen in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and has formed four heavy aging stage districts,the "inverse dual structure" has become prominent in districts and counties. The semi-annular growth rate belt of ageing in the Suzhou-Anhui region and the cluster growth rate belt of ageing in the Zhejiang-Anhui region will jointly push forward the process of population ageing in the urban agglomeration. The spatial agglomeration trend of the elderly population density is strengthened,and the high-density areas are mainly concentrated in the eastern municipal districts. 2) Population migration configuration of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has deepened the degree of regional aging in general,and all of them show strong spatial agglomeration except for the substitution agglomeration. The highly aging regions are the result of the specific migration configuration. 3) It analyzes the driving mechanism of the spatial and temporal evolution of population aging in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration in terms of the regional economic level,social security,natural factors and settlement costs,and it is argued that natural factors,social factors and economic factors influence the process of population aging in the region by affecting the regional net migration rate of the population,the net migration rate of the young adult population,the net migration rate of the older adult population and the rate of natural increase.
[1] Skinner M W,Cloutier D,Andrews G J.Geographies of ageing:Progress and possibilities after two decades of change[J]. Progress in Human Geography,2015,39(6):776-799.
[2] McCarthy K F. The Elderly Population’s Changing Spatial Distribution:Patterns of Change since 1960[M]. Santa Monica:Rand Corporation,1983.
[3] Morita H.On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan:Theory and empirics[J]. Economic Modelling,2022,108:1-14.
[4] Kuitto K,Helmdag J,Extending working lives:How policies shape retirement and labour market participation of older workers[J]. Social Policy & Administration,2021,55(3):423-439.
[5] Rosenberg M.Health geography I:Social justice,idealist theory,health and health care[J]. Progress in Human Geography,2014,38(3):466-475.
[6] Zhang S,Wu W,Xiao Z,et al.Creating livable cities for healthy ageing:Cognitive health in older adults and their 15-minute walkable neighbourhoods[J]. Cities,2023,137:1-13.
[7] Andrews G J,Gavin N,Begley S,et al.Assisting friendships,combating loneliness:Users’ views on a ‘befriending’ scheme[J]. Ageing & Society,2003,23(3):349-362.
[8] Bastia T,Lulle A,King R.Migration and development:The overlooked roles of older people and ageing[J]. Progress in Human Geography,2022,46(4):1009-1027.
[9] Rogers A,Woodward J.The sources of regional elderly population growth:Migration and aging-in-place[J]. The Professional Geographer,1988,40(4):450-459.
[10] Schwanen T,Banister D,Bowling A.Independence and mobility in later life[J]. Geoforum,2012,43(6):1313-1322.
[11] Andrews G J,Evans J,Wiles J L.Re-spacing and re-placing gerontology:Relationality and affect[J]. Ageing & Society,2013,33(8):1339-1373.
[12] Andrews G J.The lively challenges and opportunities of non-representational theory:A reply to Hanlon and Kearns[J]. Social Science & Medicine,2015,128:338-341.
[13] Wang S.Spatial patterns and social-economic influential factors of population aging:A global assessment from 1990 to 2010[J]. Social Science & Medicine,2020,253:1-9.
[14] 郑振华,彭希哲. 社区环境对老年人行为与健康的影响研究——不同年龄阶段老年人的群组比较[J]. 地理研究,2019,38(6):1481-1496.
[15] 杨红,申犁帆,胡议文,等. 老年人地铁出行时空特征及与建成环境非线性关系——以武汉市为例[J]. 地理科学进展,2023,42(3):491-504.
[16] 赵鹏军,罗佳,胡昊宇. 基于大数据的老年人生活圈及设施配置特征分析——以北京市为例[J]. 地理科学,2022,42(7):1176-1186.
[17] 魏越,杨东峰. 邻里目的地建成环境对老年日常活动机会的影响——基于感知和参与视角[J]. 地理科学进展,2023,42(1):89-103.
[18] 张春梅,李雪铭. 辽宁省老年宜居社区人居环境评价[J]. 地理科学,2021,41(1):92-99.
[19] 彭希哲,胡湛. 当代中国家庭变迁与家庭政策重构[J]. 中国社会科学,2015(12):113-132,207.
[20] 姜磊,陈星宇,朱竑. 中国城市养老院的空间分布特征及其分异成因[J]. 地理学报,2021,76(8):1951-1964.
[21] 翟振武,陈佳鞠,李龙. 2015~2100年中国人口与老龄化变动趋势[J]. 人口研究,2017,41(4):60-71.
[22] 蔡昉. 人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点[J]. 经济研究,2010,45(4):4-13.
[23] 马瀛通. 人口红利与日俱增是21世纪中国跨越式发展的动力[J]. 中国人口科学,2007(1):2-9,95.
[24] 王德文,蔡昉,张学辉. 人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应——论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J]. 人口研究,2004(5):2-11.
[25] 高晓路,吴丹贤,许泽宁,等. 中国老龄化地理学综述和研究框架构建[J]. 地理科学进展,2015,34(12):1480-1494.
[26] 李日邦,王五一,谭见安,等. 我国人口老龄化发展的阶段、趋势和区域差异[J]. 地理研究,1999(2):2-10.
[27] 吴连霞,赵媛,吴开亚,等. 中国人口老龄化区域差异及驱动机制研究[J]. 地理科学,2018,38(6):877-884.
[28] 许昕,赵媛,张新林,等. 江苏省人口老龄化空间分异演变及影响因素[J]. 地理科学,2017,37(12):1859-1866.
[29] 林琳,马飞. 广州市人口老龄化的空间分布及趋势[J]. 地理研究,2007(5):1043-1054.
[30] 敖荣军,常亮. 基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制[J]. 地理学报,2020,75(8):1572-1584.
[31] 王志宝,孙铁山,李国平. 近20年来中国人口老龄化的区域差异及其演化[J]. 人口研究,2013,37(1):66-77.
[32] 王志宝,孙铁山,张杰斐. 人口老龄化区域类型划分与区域演变分析——以中美日韩四国为例[J]. 地理科学,2015,35(7):822-830.
[33] 康江江,丁志伟,张改素,等. 中原地区人口老龄化的多尺度时空格局[J]. 经济地理,2016,36(4):29-37.
[34] 周鹏,邓伟,张少尧. 四川省人口老龄化的地域特征及影响因素[J]. 经济地理,2019,39(12):39-47.
[35] 许昕,赵媛,郭爱妹. 基于街道尺度的南京市老年人口空间分布演变研究[J]. 人文地理,2016,31(6):88-94,129.
[36] 王录仓,武荣伟,李巍. 中国城市群人口老龄化时空格局[J]. 地理学报,2017,72(6):1001-1016.
[37] 于涛方. 中国城市老龄化空间特征及相关因素分析——基于“五普”和“六普”人口数据的分析[J]. 城市规划学刊,2013(6):58-66.
[38] 柴彦威,田原裕子,李昌霞. 老年人居住迁移的地理学研究进展[J]. 地域研究与开发,2006(3):109-115.
[39] 于蜀,陈扬乐. 中国区域人口老龄化趋势、特征及其对策[J]. 华东师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2000(3):94-98,111.
[40] Rogers A,Woodward J A.Tempos of elderly age and geographical concentration[J]. The Professional Geographer,1992,44(1):72-83.
