快速城市化背景下,中国的收缩型城市数量持续增加。文章利用第五、六、七次全国人口普查、市辖区人口、户籍人口、城区人口、LandScan与城市面板数据,对中国人口收缩型城市空间分布进行研究,并从产业集聚视角探究了收缩型城市的成因。①使用三次人口普查和LandScan数据研究发现,2010—2020年收缩型城市占比较2000—2010年增长54.65%,重度收缩型城市新增32个,东北地区收缩型城市数量增长最为显著,增幅达172.73%。使用市辖区人口、户籍人口和城区人口数据也得到了相似的结论。②2003—2020年收缩型城市产业多样化集聚水平呈下降态势,专业化集聚水平不断提升。③实证回归结果显示,收缩型城市产业集聚会影响城市人口规模,多样化集聚下降带来的人口规模负效应远超专业化集聚水平提升带来的人口规模正效应。研究结论可为中国城市建设和产业政策制定提供参考依据。
Under the background of rapid urbanization,the number of shrinking cities in China continues to increase. Based on the relevant population data,the LandScan data and the urban Panel data,this paper analyzes the spatial distribution of shrinking cities in China,and explores the causes of shrinking cities from the perspective of industrial agglomeration. 1) Based on three national population censuses and the LandScan data,it was found that from 2010 to 2020,the proportion of shrinking cities increased by 54.65% compared with 2000 to 2010,with 32 new severe shrinking cities added. The number of shrinking cities increased the most significantly in northeast China,with an increase of 172.73%. It has similar conclusions according to the population data of the municipal jurisdiction,registered residence population data and urban population data. 2) From 2003 to 2020,the level of diversified agglomeration in shrinking cities showed a downward trend,while the level of specialized agglomeration continued to improve. 3) The empirical regression results show that the industrial agglomeration in shrinking cities affects the urban population size,and the negative effect of diversified agglomeration on population size far exceeds the positive effect of specialized agglomeration on population size. The research conclusions can provide theoretical basis for urban construction and industrial policy formulation in China.
[1] UN-HABITAT.State of the world’s cities 2008/2009: Harmonious cities [R]. United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT),2008:40-41.
[2] Panagopoulos T,Guimarães M H,Barreira A P.Influences on citizens’ policy preferences for shrinking cities:A case study of four Portuguese cities[J]. Regional Studies,Regional Science,2015,2(1):141-170.
[3] Häußermann H,Siebel W.Die Schrumpfende Stadt und die Stadtsoziologie[M]. Wiesbaden:VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften,1988.
[4] Wolff M,Wiechmann T.Urban growth and decline:Europe’s shrinking cities in a comparative perspective 1990-2010[J]. European Urban and Regional Studies,2018,25(2):122-139.
[5] Khmara Y,Kronenberg J.On the road to urban degrowth economics?Learning from the experience of C40 cities,doughnut cities,Transition Towns,and shrinking cities[J]. Cities,2023,DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2023.104259.
[6] Vinci S,Vardopoulos I,Salvati L.A tale of a shrinking City?Exploring the complex interplay of socio-demographic dynamics in the recent development of Attica,Greece[J]. Cities,2023,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.104089.
[7] 龙瀛,吴康,王江浩. 中国收缩城市及其研究框架[J]. 现代城市研究,2015(9):14-19.
[8] 孙平军,王柯文. 中国东北三省城市收缩的识别及其类型划分[J]. 地理学报,2021,76(6):1366-1379.
[9] 吴康,龙瀛,杨宇. 京津冀与长江三角洲的局部收缩:格局、类型与影响因素识别[J]. 现代城市研究,2015(9):26-35.
[10] 杜志威,李郇. 基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究[J]. 地理科学,2018,38(11):1837-1846.
[11] 胡语宸,刘艳军,孙宏日. 城市增长与收缩的演变过程及其影响因素——以黑龙江省煤炭资源型城市为例[J]. 地理科学,2020,40(9):1450-1459.
[12] Marshall A.Principles of Economics[M]. London:MacMillan,1890.
[13] Jacobs J.The Economy of Cities[M]. New York:Vintage,1969.
[14] Beaudry C,Schiffauerova A.Who’s right,Marshall or Jacobs?The localization versus urbanization debate[J]. Research Policy,2009,38(2):318-337.
[15] Lee. Agglomeration,search frictions and growth of cities in developing economies[J]. Annals of Regional Science,2015,55(2-3):421-451.
[16] Dauth. Agglomeration and regional employment dynamics[J]. Papers in Regional Science,2013,92(2):419-435.
[17] Glaeser E L,Kallal H D,Scheinkman J A,et al.Growth in Cities[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(6):1126-1152.
[18] Henderson,Kuncoro A,Turner M. Industrial development in cities[J]. Journal of Political Economy,1995,103(5):1067-1090.
[19] 韩峰,李玉双. 产业集聚、公共服务供给与城市规模扩张[J]. 经济研究,2019,54(11):149-164.
[20] Martinez-Fernandez C,Audirac I,Fol S,et al.Shrinking cities:Urban challenges of globalization[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research,2012,36(2):213-225.
[21] He S Y,Lee J,Zhou T,et al.Shrinking cities and resource-based economy:The economic restructuring in China’s mining cities[J]. Cities,2017,60:75-83.
[22] Hartt M D.How cities shrink:Complex pathways to population decline[J]. Cities,2018,75:38-49.
[23] Jakar G S,Dunn J R.Hamilton,Ontario and a Canadian perspective of shrinking and declining cities[J]. Cities,2019,94:1-10.
[24] Wirth P,Elis V,Müller B,et al.Peripheralisation of small towns in Germany and Japan-Dealing with economic decline and population loss[J]. Journal of Rural Studies,2016,47:62-75.
[25] 徐博,庞德良. 增长与衰退:国际城市收缩问题研究及对中国的启示[J]. 经济学家,2014(4):5-13.
[26] 周恺,钱芳芳,严妍. 湖南省多地理尺度下的人口“收缩地图”[J]. 地理研究,2017,36(2):267-280.
[27] 吴康. 城市收缩的认知误区与空间规划响应[J]. 北京规划建设,2019(3):4-11.
[28] Wiechmann T.Errors expected—Aligning urban strategy with demographic uncertainty in shrinking cities[J]. International Planning Studies,2008,13(4):431-446.
[29] 吴康,戚伟. 收缩型城市:认知误区、统计甄别与测算反思[J]. 地理研究,2021,40(1):213-229.
[30] Meng X,Jiang Z,Wang X,et al.Shrinking cities on the globe:Evidence from LandScan 2000-2019[J]. Environment and Planning A:Economy and Space,2021,53(6):1244-1248.
[31] Glaeser E L,Scheinkman JoséA,Shleifer A. Economic growth in a cross-section of cities[J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1995,36(1):117-143.
[32] 袁冬梅,信超辉,袁珶. 产业集聚模式选择与城市人口规模变化——来自285个地级及以上城市的经验证据[J]. 中国人口科学,2019(6):46-58,127.
[33] Hoyt H.Homer Hoyt on development of economic base concept[J]. Land Economics,1954,30(2):182.
[34] Wang J,Yang Z,Qian X.Driving factors of urban shrinkage:Examining the role of local industrial diversity[J]. Cities,2020,DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2020.102646.
[35] 吴康,刘骁啸,姚常成. 产业转型对中国资源型城市增长与收缩演变轨迹的影响机制[J]. 自然资源学报,2023,38(1):109-125.
[36] Duranton G,Puga D.Nursery cities:Urban diversity,process innovation,and the life cycle of products[J]. The American Economic Review,2001,91(5):1454-1477.
[37] 傅十和,洪俊杰. 企业规模、城市规模与集聚经济——对中国制造业企业普查数据的实证分析[J]. 经济研究,2008,43(11):112-125.
[38] Angrist J D,Krueger A B.Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings?[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1991,106(4):979-1014.
[39] 孙传旺,罗源,姚昕. 交通基础设施与城市空气污染——来自中国的经验证据[J]. 经济研究,2019,54(8):136-151.
[40] 单德朋,王英,郑长德. 专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(7):157-168.
[41] 王峤,刘修岩,李迎成. 空间结构、城市规模与中国城市的创新绩效[J]. 中国工业经济,2021(5):114-132.
