基于人口普查数据,利用人口结构指数、人口密度与标准差椭圆,解析人口空间分布演变特征,结合土地利用数据、夜间灯光数据与POI地理大数据等多源数据,利用队列因素法、FLUS-Markov模型与多源信息融合方法,预测未来人口规模及土地利用空间格局,模拟未来长沙城市人口空间分布格局发展趋势。结果表明：①2000—2020年长沙市主城区人口呈现“集聚—离散”的双重特征、“圈层—分异”的空间结构、“单中心+多组团”有机疏散的分布格局,城市人口空间分布从“中心高度集聚”逐渐向“边缘迅速发展”转变,人口重心向西南侧迁移,呈现“内疏外扩”的发展趋势。②2021—2035年长沙市主城区人口分布格局整体保持相对稳定,常住人口规模将稳步增长,增速逐年下降。利用FLUS-Markov模型预测未来土地利用空间格局,总体Kappa系数为0.91,建设用地的向外扩张与人口规模的持续增长,将进一步强化未来人口空间分布的圈层式结构与向外拓展趋势。③未来长沙市主城区人口空间分布格局整体保持相对稳定,核心区、中心城区和近郊区街道人口密度的空间差异显著,逐渐形成4个人口密度高集聚区和2个次集聚区。
Based on the census data,this paper uses the population structure index,population density and standard deviation ellipse to analyze the evolution characteristics of population spatial distribution. Combining with the multi-source data such as land use data,night light data and POI data,it predicts the future urban population size and land use spatial pattern,and simulates the future development trend of population spatial distribution pattern in Changsha by the means of the queue factor method,FLUS-Markov model and multi-source information fusion. The results show that: 1) From 2000 to 2020,the population in the main urban areas of Changsha City presents the dual characteristics of "agglomeration and dispersion",the spatial structure of "circle layer and differentiation",and the distribution pattern of organic evacuation of "single center + multiple groups". The spatial distribution of urban population gradually changes from "highly concentrated center" to "rapid development on the edge",and the gravity centers of population move to the southwest,showing the development trend of "thinning inside and expanding outside". 2) From 2021 to 2035,the population distribution pattern in the main urban areas of Changsha City will remain relatively stable,and the size of permanent population will increase steadily,with the growth rate decreasing year by year. It uses the FLUS-Markov model to predict the future spatial pattern of land use,and the overall Kappa coefficient is 0.91. The outward expansion of construction land and the continuous growth of population size will further strengthen the circular structure and outward expansion trend of population spatial distribution in the future. 3) In the future,the spatial distribution pattern of population in the main urban areas of Changsha is relatively stable as a whole,and the spatial difference of population density in the core area,the central city area and the suburban streets will be significant,which will gradually form 4 clusters with high population density and 2 sub-clusters.
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