在传统农区,小城镇作为服务带动乡村发展的重要节点,对推动城乡融合和就地城镇化具有重要意义。文章在理论分析基础上,构建小城镇规模及演变分析框架,基于2005—2020年这一河南省城镇化快速发展阶段,以河南省3个县级单元作为典型区域进行分析。研究表明：①小城镇规模在各阶段总体持续扩张,扩张强度呈现一定的差异性。②在2005—2010、2011—2015、2016—2020年3个时段,小城镇总体规模演变速率呈逐步下降但趋势放缓特征,人口规模演变速率在2016—2020年阶段重新上升。不同尺度的对比分析表明,小城镇人口规模演变速率波动最为明显。③除宏观政策外,小城镇规模的核心影响因素为初始规模基础、企业家和乡贤能力,其次为对外交通网密度、产业发展水平、海拔高程等;小城镇规模变化量的影响因素探测结果相对较弱,其影响机制更为复杂。④GWR模型显示小城镇规模影响因素存在空间分异性,随着时间的推移,其分异性也处于变化之中。文章有助于丰富传统农区小城镇发展规律研究,为类似区域小城镇发展政策制定等提供一定的参考。
In traditional rural areas,small towns,as an important node in serving and driving rural development,are important carriers for realizing urban-rural integration and local urbanization. Based on theoretical analysis and taking typical counties in Henan Province as the research area,this paper constructs a framework for analyzing the size and evolution of small towns at the rapid development stage of urbanization from 2005 to 2020. The results show that: 1) The town size has been continuously improved in the process of rapid urbanization,and it has the expansion difference among three counties. 2) The evolution rate of town size has been showed a gradual decline but a slowing trend in 2005-2010,2011-2015 and 2016-2020,the evolution rate of population size has been rising in 2016-2020. 3) The analysis of Geographic detector shows that the development of towns is the result of a series of interaction factors,among which the initial development level,the ability of social actors playing the dominant role,the traffic network density,the industrial development level,the elevation and so on. The results of the influencing factors on the size change of small towns are relatively weak,and their impact mechanisms are more complex. 4) The GWR model shows that factors affecting the size expansion of small towns are different in space,and its spatial heterogeneity is also changing over time. This paper is helpful to enrich the research results on the law and mechanism of small town development. At the same time,it also provides suggestions for policymakers to support the sustainable development of towns.
[1] 方创琳,毛其智,倪鹏飞. 中国城市群科学选择与分级发展的争鸣及探索[J]. 地理学报,2015,70(4):515-527.
[2] 刘彦随,周扬,李玉恒. 中国乡村地域系统与乡村振兴战略[J]. 地理学报,2019,74(12):2511-2528.
[3] Najarsadeghi M,Dorostkar E.An assessment of the role of small towns in the development of periphery population centers using network analysis[J]. Cities,2022,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.104026.
[4] Sýkora L,Mulíček O.Territorial Arrangements of small and medium-sized towns from a functional-spatial perspective[J]. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie,2017,108(4):438-455.
[5] Ploeckl F.The next town over:On the clustering of towns and settlements before modern economic growth[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2021,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103619.
[6] Jordan D,Wright A.Starting the conversation for a town centre management framework for small towns in rural places:An Irish context[J]. Journal of Rural Studies,2023,97:395-404.
[7] Cui J,Luo J,Kong X,et al.Characterising the hierarchical structure of urban-rural system at county level using a method based on interconnection analysis[J]. Journal of Rural Studies,2022,93:263-272.
[8] Atkinson R.The small towns conundrum:What do we do about them?[J]. Regional Statistics,2019,9(2):3-19.
[9] Tripathi S,Mitra A.Shedding light on unnoticed gems in India:A small town's growth perspective[J]. Land Use Policy 2022,https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106239.
[10] 吴康,方创琳. 新中国60年来小城镇的发展历程与新态势[J]. 经济地理,2009,29(10):1605-1611.
[11] 费孝通. 学术自述与反思:费孝通学术文集[M]. 北京:三联书店,1995.
[12] 曹广忠,周一星. 论乡镇企业的集中布局:孙耿模式研究[J]. 经济地理,1997,17(1):65-70.
[13] 张立. 新时期的“小城镇、大战略”:试论人口高输出地区的小城镇发展机制. 城市规划学刊,2012(1):23-32.
[14] 于正松,程叶青,李小建,等. 工业镇“生产—生活—生态”空间演化过程、动因与重构——以河南省曲沟镇为例[J]. 地理科学,2020,40(4):646-656.
[15] 于正松,李小建,刘依,等. 中国乡镇企业生产效率格局及重心轨迹演变[J]. 经济地理,2019,39(5):128-134.
[16] 赵鹏军,白羽. 不同功能类型的小城镇特征差异性分析[J]. 小城镇建设,2017(4):37-43.
[17] 刘盛和,王雪芹,戚伟. 中国城镇人口“镇化”发展的时空分异[J]. 地理研究,2019,38(1):85-101.
[18] 曹智,刘彦随,李裕瑞,等. 中国专业村镇空间格局及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报,2020,75(8):1647-1666.
[19] 王雪芹,戚伟,刘盛和. 中国小城镇空间分布特征及其相关因素[J]. 地理研究,2020(2):319-336.
[20] 丁志伟,刘盈盈,吴小妮,等. 中国镇域经济的空间分异格局及影响因素——基于31755个乡镇的农民人均纯收入数据[J]. 经济地理,2020,40(11):18-28,38.
[21] 陆大道,陈明星. 关于“国家新型城镇化规划(2014—2020)”编制大背景的几点认识[J]. 地理学报,2015,70(2):179-185.
[22] 刘帅宾. 基于人口流动的中国省域城镇化空间格局及关联研究[D]. 南京:南京师范大学,2018.
[23] 张洁,郭小锋. 德国特色小城镇多样化发展模式初探[J]. 小城镇建设,2016(6):97-101.
[24] 张莉,陆玉麒. 基于可达性的中心地体系的空间分析[J]. 地理科学,2013,33(6):649-658.
[25] 鲁照旺. 从外部性看主流经济学的谬误[J]. 学术界,2019,255(8):66-74.
[26] 王劲峰,徐成东. 地理探测器:原理与展望[J]. 地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.
[27] 韩静,芮旸,杨坤,等. 基于地理探测器和GWR模型的中国重点镇布局定量归因[J]. 地理科学进展,2020,39(10):1687-1697.
[28] 封志明,杨艳昭,游珍,等. 基于分县尺度的中国人口分布适宜度研究[J]. 地理学报,2014,69(6):723-737.
[29] 柏中强,王卷乐,杨雅萍,等. 基于乡镇尺度的中国25省区人口分布特征及影响因素[J]. 地理学报,2015,70(8):1229-1242.
[30] 屠爽爽,龙花楼,张英男,等. 典型村域乡村重构的过程及其驱动因素[J]. 地理学报,2019,74(2):323-339.
[31] 唐永,李小建,娄帆,等. 快速城镇化背景下中国小城镇时空演变及影响因素[J]. 经济地理,2022,42(3):66-75.
[32] 王振波,徐建刚,朱传耿,等. 中国县域可达性区域划分及其与人口分布的关系[J]. 地理学报,2010,65(4):416-426.
[33] 李国平,宋昌耀,孙瑀. 中国县域小城镇就业岗位对人口集聚的影响研究:基于分位数回归的实证检验[J]. 地理科学,2017,37(12):1785-1794.
[34] 尹旭,王婧,李裕瑞,等. 中国乡镇人口分布时空变化及其影响因素[J]. 地理研究,2022,41(5):1245-1261.
