运用耦合协调度、Dagum基尼系数、地理探测器等方法,评估测度了中国290个地级以上城市2000、2008、2018年人口城镇化与保险业耦合协调水平,并分析了其时空变化特征及影响因素。结果表明：①人口城镇化与保险业协调度整体呈上升态势但总体水平较低,协调度形成东部地区、东北地区、中部地区、西部地区依次递减的空间格局;协调水平与城市规模等级呈正相关,不同城市规模间差异明显。②在地区视角、城市规模视角下均有组内差异大、组间差异小的特点,组间差异是造成协调度空间分异的主要成因,东—西部的区域间差异最大、东北—中部的区域间差异最小,超大城市与特大城市、大城市、小城市间的规模间差距较大。③协调度的空间分异是多因子综合作用的结果,主导因子为人口城镇化率、保险密度、人均GDP、人均地方财政收入、人均储蓄存款余额、人均社会消费品零售总额;政府的调控协同、经济的支撑驱动、科技的潜在支持、教育的观念转换、对外开放的传导效应是二者协调发展过程中的五大支持效应。
Using coupling coordination degree,Dagum Gini coefficient and geographic detector,this paper measured the coupling coordination level of population urbanization and insurance industry in 290 prefecture-level cities of China in 2000,2008 and 2018,and analyzed their spatial and temporal change characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that: 1) The overall level of coordination between population urbanization and insurance industry is low but in a rising tendency,and the coordination level forms the decreasing spatial pattern in this order: the eastern region,the northeastern region,the central region and the western region. The coordination level is positively correlated with the city scale,and the difference between different city sizes is obvious. 2) From the perspectives of region and city scale,the intra-group difference is large and the inter-group difference is small,and the inter-group difference is the main reason for the spatial differentiation of coordination degree. The inter-regional difference between the east and the west is the largest,and the inter-regional difference between the northeast and the central is the smallest. The scale gap between megacity behemoths and megacities,large cities and small cities is large. 3) The spatial divergence of coordination degree is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors,the leading factors are population urbanization rate,insurance density,per capita GDP,per capita local fiscal revenue,per capita savings deposit balance,per capita total retail sales of social consumer goods. The synergy of government regulation,support and prompting of economy,potential support of science and technology,conceptual conversion of education,and conduction effect of opening-up to the outside world are the five major supporting effects of the coordinated development process of the two. On the basis of the differentiation characteristics and development rules of the coordination degree between population urbanization and insurance industry,it provides countermeasures and suggestions for the goal of building a modern socialist country in the new era.
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