基于县域地均粮食产量和植被初级生产力等面板数据,采用非参数核密度估计曲线、重心迁移模型和双变量Moran's I指数等方法,探讨2000—2018年长江中游地区粮食生产力（GPC）与植被初级生产力（VPP）的动态演进过程和时空交互特征,并进一步解析两者之间存在的权衡与协同发展态势。结果表明：①长江中游地区GPC值不断提升且县域内部差距不断缩小,VPP值虽然略有波动但增减幅度总体较小。②从全域视角看县域GPC重心不断向东迁移,平均迁移速率约为1.20 km/a;VPP的重心落在江西修水县西北部,其重心位置呈现上下微幅波动和基本原地打转的特征。③GPC与VPP之间呈现显著的负相关特征,其中“低—高”区域在研究区中部偏西的位置呈南北走向集中连片分布,“高—低”区域主要坐落在外围山地丘陵多的欠发达县区,“低—低”区域则集中分布在武汉市周边县市区,“高—高”区域较少且分布较为零散。④研究期间GPC与VPP的权衡/协同态势表明,正向协同类型占据区域主体地位,但仍有少数单元区面临粮食增产和生态保护的双重叠加压力。未来可通过提升农业生产技术水平和完善跨区域生态补偿机制等举措来促进两者最终实现协同增长。
Based on panel data of grain yield per unit area and vegetation primary productivity in County,the non-parametric kernel density estimation curve,the gravity center model and the bivariate Moran's index are used to explore the dynamic evolution process of regional grain production capacity(GPC) and vegetation primary productivity(VPP) from 2000 to 2018. It also explores their temporal and spatial interaction characteristics,as well as development trend of the trade-offs and synergy. The results show that: 1) During the study period,the GPC value in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has been increasing and the gap within the county has been narrowing. Although the VPP values fluctuated slightly,the increase and decrease range was generally small. 2) The gravity center of GPC in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has continuously moved eastward in the past two decades at the county level,with an average moving speed of about 1.20km/a. The gravity centers of VPP are both in the northwest of Xiushui County,and present the characteristics of slight fluctuations and in-situ rotation. 3) There is an obvious negative correlation between VPP and GPC. The LH regions in the west of the central part of the study area are concentrated and contiguous in the north-south direction. The HL regions are mainly located in the peripheral underdeveloped counties which are hilly areas. The LL regions are concentrated in the surrounding area of Wuhan City,and the HH regions are less and scattered. 4) The trade-off & synergy distribution pattern of GPC and VPP shows that the positive synergy type occupies the dominant position in the region during the study period,but a few unit areas still face the dual superposition pressure of food production and ecological protection. In the future,GPC and VPP can finally achieve coordinated growth by improving the level of agricultural production technology and the cross regional ecological compensation mechanism.
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