从单中心向多中心演化的空间发展结构深刻影响着区域经济协调发展。文章利用泰尔指数、基尼系数与帕累托指数,测度了中国23个省域的不平衡发展水平与多中心演化水平,基于2004—2019年省级面板数据的二次项修正模型,实证考察了中国省域空间发展结构的多中心演化水平与区域发展不平衡水平的关系与交互机制。回归结果显示：①中国省域多中心演化与区域发展不平衡水平之间存在非线性正U型关系,但东部沿海省域能够较好地克服过强的多中心结构引发的资源争抢问题,呈线性相关;②空间发展结构对区域发展不平衡水平产生显著影响主要发生在2012年中国经济进入增速换挡期后;③省域多中心演化程度对区域发展不平衡的作用会受到工业发展水平、服务业发展水平、城镇化水平、人力资本等因素非线性调节的复杂影响。文章进而从空间发展结构规划角度提出促进中国区域协调发展的政策建议。
The evolution of spatial development structure from monocentric to polycentric profoundly affects the coordinated regional economic development. This paper measures the level of imbalanced regional development and polycentric urban structure of 23 provinces in China using the Theil index,Gini index and Pareto index. It empirically examines the relation and regulatory mechanism of the polycentric evolution of spatial development structure on the level of imbalanced regional development based on the quadratic term-modified model with provincial-level panel data from 2004 to 2019. The regression results show that: 1) There is a non-linear positive U-shaped relationship between the degree of polycentricity and the level of regional development imbalance at the provincial level in China,but the eastern coastal provinces are better able to overcome the problem of resource competition brought about by a polycentric structure,with a linear correlation. 2) The significant impact of spatial development structure on the level of regional development imbalance mainly occurred after China's economy entered the growth rate shift period in 2012. 3) The influence of the polycentric evolution on imbalanced regional development is regulated by the complex non-linear interaction effects,such as the level of industry development,the level of service development,the level of urbanization and human capital. According the above,it proposes some policy recommendations to promote coordinated regional development from the perspective of spatial development structure planning.
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