WANG Shaohua, CHENG Mengrui, ZHANG Wei
Guided by China's energy transition goals in the new era, which emphasize a balanced approach to low-carbon transformation and energy security, this study develops an evaluation matrix for low-carbon energy resilience. The matrix integrates domains from the low-carbon perspective—energy endowment, economy, society, and environment—with stages from the resilience perspective—planning, absorption, recovery, and adaptation. Integrated methods, including the optimal combination weighting method, kernel density estimation, and the Dagum Gini coefficient, are employed to measure China's low-carbon energy resilience from 2012 to 2022 and summarize its spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics. The geographic detector is further applied to identify dominant driving factors and their temporal evolution. The study shows that: 1) China's low-carbon energy resilience generally exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the highest level observed in the western region, followed by the central, eastern, and northeastern regions, respectively. 2) Low-carbon energy resilience in western regions has developed comprehensively across various sectors, with particularly strong performance in energy endowment and environmental dimensions, demonstrating robust adaptive capacity; central and northeastern regions display a "jack-of-all-trades dilemma," with capabilities dispersed across domains without distinct advantages; the eastern region demonstrates strong resilience in economic and social spheres and high absorption capacity, but shows relative weaknesses in energy endowment and environmental dimensions; overall regional disparities are narrowing, primarily driven by interregional differences. 3) During the study period, the drivers of low-carbon energy resilience evolved from economic guidance dominance to technology support dominance, and finally to a phase of multi-dimensional synergy. The explanatory power of interaction factors was significantly greater than that of single factors, particularly in interactions involving the behavioral coordination dimension.