经济社会的快速发展催生了大规模的人口流动,外来人口成为城镇化的重要内容。研究以浙江省为例,从县域尺度探讨城镇常住人口的来源构成,揭示城镇化的发展质量,并基于各类型常住人口对县域城镇化发展的贡献率和县域城镇化增速等变量,通过系统聚类分析对县域城镇化的类型进行划分。研究表明：①2000—2010年,浙江省城镇化发展经历了由低水平的不均衡阶段向较高水平的相对均衡阶段的转变;②户籍城镇常住人口是浙江省县域城镇常住人口的主要构成,但绝大部分区县呈现出占比下降而空间趋向均衡的趋势,对县域城镇化发展的贡献小,而省内城镇常住人口和省外城镇常住人口在县域城镇常住人口中的占比小但呈现明显的上升趋势,对县域城镇化发展的贡献大;③浙江省县域城镇化可划分为省内人口主导低速增长型、省外人口主导中低速增长型、县外人口主导中速增长型、省外人口主导高速增长型和户籍人口萎缩增长停滞型五种类型。针对不同城镇化发展类型面临的问题,应因地制宜,采取针对性的措施,提升县域城镇化的发展质量,为实现城镇化的可持续发展提供参考和借鉴。
Since the reform and opening-up, China has experienced the largest and fastest process of urbanization in the world. With the increasing of large-scale population flow which is promoted by the development of economy and society, external population becomes an important part of urbanization. Taking Zhejiang as an example and scale, this study explores the source compositions of population urbanization at county-level through the analysis of tabulations on the 2000 and 2010 population of Zhejiang, revealing the quality of urbanization. Based on the contribution rates of different types of urban resident population to urbanization and the growth rates of county urbanization, it carries out regional divisions of urbanization at county-level through cluster analysis. Results show that the urbanization in Zhejiang experiences a transformation from low-level imbalance to relatively higher-level equilibrium stage. Registered population is the main source of urban population, but it shows a tendency of declining proportion and uniform distribution in most counties and its contribution rate to the development of urbanization is small. However, the population who come from other counties both in and outside the Zhejiang Province show a marked upward trend in most counties and play an important role in the development of urbanization. Based on the growth rates of urbanization development and the characteristics of resident population, it divides the counties into five types: low-speed growth type dominated by population from other counties in Zhejiang, mid-low speed growth type developed by population from Zhejiang, middle-speed growth type promoted by population who come from the county, high-speed growth type driven by population who are not from Zhejiang and stationary growth type caused by the atrophy of registered population. These results can provide references for the policymaker to promote the people who have moved from the rural to urban areas to gain permanent urban residency and improve the quality of urbanization. Therefore, it can achieve the goal of transformation of urbanization.
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