在全球化和信息技术革命的背景下,国家实力的强制性趋于无形化,焦点转向国家权力在空间上的分布及其如何转化为实际影响力等问题。关注实体空间扩张和权力争夺的经典地缘政治理论对当今世界地缘政治现实及国际问题的解释力逐步削弱。文章采用新的地缘政治视角——地缘位势及其评价方法——来定量分析国家间的地缘关系,借鉴物理学“位势”概念和国际关系学“地缘重心论”等理论构建地缘位势模型,以中国—中亚为例探讨地缘关系的变化并尝试解释其规律性影响因素。结论如下：①以事件数据分析法表达的中国—中亚五国地缘关系来检验地缘位势模型分析的结果,结果一致性良好,地缘位势模型对地缘关系的衡量具有较高拟合度;②中国在中亚各国的地缘位势总量都呈逐年上升态势,五国位次几乎没有变动,由大到小分别是哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦,从地缘位势变化率来看分为起步（1999—2005年）和快速发展（2005年以后）两个时期;③影响中国在中亚地缘位势的因素中,地缘区位是其他地缘要素的基础,地缘利益是发展国家间关系的目的和出发点,地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化在发展中互相促进、相互制约,这五方面也是我国在与中亚共建“丝绸之路经济带”过程中亟待处理的战略重点。
With the rapid development of globalization and revolution of information technology, the coerciveness of national power is becoming more immaterial and turning the focus to the spatial distribution of national power , how it shifts into actual influence and so on. Thus, the classical geopolitical theories focusing on physical space expansion and power struggles have gradually weakened the explanatory capability of the current world geopolitical realities and international issues. This paper , based on the geo-potential theory, quantitatively analyzed the geopolitical relations between countries. Learning from the "Potential" concept in physics and "Geopolitical Center of Gravity" theory in international relations, this paper proposed the "geo-potential" concept and built its evaluation system, which explored the changes of China-Central Asia geopolitical relations, and analyzed the influential factors of the changes. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) Utilizing the event data analysis to verify the result of the geo-potential model analysis, the result is in good consistency and geopolitical relations has high degree of fitting. (2) From the Geo-potential of the five Central Asian countries, the absolute values increases gradually, and the order was almost unchanged: Kazakhstan> Kyrgyzstan> Uzbekistan> Tajikistan> Turkmenistan. In terms of the geopotential change rate that China-Central Asia from 1999-2014, it can be divided into two stages:the first stage is in the initial stage from 1999-2005, when China-Central Asia geopolitical relations was getting off the ground. The second stage is in the developing stage after 2005, when China-Central Asia geopolitical relations developed rapidly. (3) We identify five influential factors of geo-potential, which are geographical location, geopolitical interest, geopolitics, geopolitical economy and geopolitical culture. Among these factors, geographical location is the basis for other geopolitical factors,geopolitical interest is the goal and starting point for inter-state relations. geopolitics, geopolitical economy and geopolitical culture are interdependent and interactional. These five dimensions are also strategic focuses in the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt".
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