中国分布式光伏装机逐年攀升,项目收益持续向好,但由于太阳能资源禀赋分布不均衡、电价差异等因素影响,中国各省份分布式光伏收益水平高低不一,影响均衡发展。文章以中国不同省份、不同类型的分布式光伏为研究对象,建立通用经济性评价模型,对各省份分布式光伏进行收益及影响因素分析。结果表明：①中国太阳能资源分布严重不均匀,煤电价及一般工商业电价地区差异大;②多数省份分布式光伏能够达到收益要求,但是收益跨度大,省域间不均衡问题严重;③自用比例、发电小时数、租金是影响分布式光伏项目收益的重要因素。根据研究结果,建议从政策层面,仍有必要采取适当的激励措施,以均衡不同地区分布式光伏开发。
In China,the number of distributed photovoltaic power plants (PV plants) is increasing gradually,and the economic benefits continues to improve. However,due to the influence of unbalanced distribution of solar resources and different electricity prices,the economic benefits of distributed PV plants is inequality at regional level,which leads to unbalanced development. This paper takes different types of distributed PV plants in different regions of Chinan as the research objects,constructs a general economic evaluation model,and analyzes the economic benefits and influencing factors of distributed PV plants. The results show that: 1) The distribution of solar resources in China is seriously uneven,and both coal-fired electricity prices and general industrial and commercial electricity prices varies greatly at regional level. 2) In most regions of China,distributed PV plants can meet the revenue requirements,but the revenue span is large and the imbalance between regions is serious. 3) Self-consumption ratio,generating hours and rent will affect the economic benefits of distributed PV plants to a great extent. It is suggested that there is a need for appropriate incentive/penalty measures at the policy level to balance distributed PV plants in different regions.
[1] 魏景东,赵增海,郭雁珩,等. 2021年中国光伏发电发展现状与展望[J]. 水力发电,2022,48(10):4-8.
[2] 王青,孙頔,张海霞,等. 中国光伏行业2021年回顾与2022年展望[J]. 电气时代,2022,42(5):20-28.
[3] 林韵. 我国光伏产业发展的财税政策研究[D]. 北京:首都经济贸易大学,2015.
[4] REN21. Renewables2007 Global Status Report [R]. Paris:REN21 Secretariat and Washington,Renewable Energy Policy network for the 21st Century (REN21),2008.
[5] Hernández-Moro J,Martínez-Duart J M. Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs:Present LCOE values and their future evolution[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2013,20:119-132.
[6] 刘喜梅,白恺,邓春,等. 大型风电项目平准化成本模型研究[J]. 可再生能源,2016,34(12):1853-1858.
[7] 闫庆友,魏琪峰,秦光宇. 基于平准化电力成本模型的屋顶式并网光伏经济性实证研究[J]. 科技和产业,2021,21(10):73-79.
[8] 洪凌,孙志久,寿春晖,等. 基于财务评价体系的光伏项目含税LCOE分析[J]. 太阳能学报,2022,43(2):203-210.
[9] Bachir I,Ouedraogo S,Kouame Y,et al.Incentives for rural off grid electrification in Burkina Faso using LCOE[J]. Renewable Energy,2015,78:573-582.
[10] 陈荣荣,孙韵琳,陈思铭,等. 并网光伏发电项目的LCOE分析[J]. 可再生能源,2015,33(5):731-735.
[11] 鲁正,陈芸菲,孙炜. 基于优化LCOE的光伏平价上网可行性分析[J]. 太阳能学报,2021,42(8):153-158.
[12] 孙建梅,陈璐. 基于LCOE的分布式光伏发电并网效益分析[J]. 中国电力,2018,51(3):88-93.
[13] Rodrigues S,Torabikalaki R, Faria F,et al.Economic feasibility analysis of small scale PV systems in different countries[J].Solar Energy,2016,131:81-95.
[14] Spertino F,Leo P D,Cocina V.Which are the constraints to the photovoltaic grid-parity in the main European markets?[J]. Solar Energy,2014,105:390-400.
[15] 邵汉桥,张籍,张维. 分布式光伏发电经济性及政策分析[J]. 电力建设,2014,35(7):51-57.
[16] 陈晓航. 宿迁20 MW分布式光伏发电项目投资风险分析及控制研究[D]. 南京:东南大学,2016.
[17] 娄奇鹤,谢国辉,李娜娜. 平价上网时代新能源发电经济性分析和发展趋势[J]. 中国电力,2019,52(12):1-9,104.
[18] 邱寿丰,陈巧燕. 我国分布式光伏发电补贴政策的经济效应研究[J]. 价格理论与实践,2016,36(8):93-96.
[19] 张博. 橙子沟水电站经济评价体系构建[D]. 兰州:兰州大学,2015.
[20] 柳君波,张静静,徐向阳. 中国城市分布式光伏发电经济性与区域利用研究[J]. 经济地理,2019,39(10):54-61.
[21] 曹宏颖. 现金流量分析在项目贷款评估中的作用[J]. 北方经贸,2014,34(4):113.
[22] IRENA. Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2021[R]. Abu Dhabi:International Renewable Energy Agency,2022.
[23] 张世翔,沈英. 3 MW屋顶分布式光伏发电系统方案设计[J]. 上海电力学院学报,2017,33(3):234-238.
[24] 国家发展改革委,建设部. 建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第三版)[M]. 北京:中国计划出版社,2006.
