基于2011—2021年中国31个省份面板数据,使用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法与模型,研究了省域跨境人民币结算的区域差距、动态演进和影响因素。结果表明：①省域跨境人民币结算呈现出“东高西低”、由东部集聚向中西部地区扩散的空间分布格局;全国总体表现为“先下降、后上升”的“U”型波动,东部差异最大,西部居中,中部最小;总体差距主要源于区域间差距。②全国、东部、中部和西部跨境人民币结算均随时间呈上升趋势和波动型前进;不同发展水平省份的流动性较高且呈“低—中低—中高—高”跨越式发展,中高水平向高水平发展则相对较难。③投资开放度、贸易开放度、金融发展对跨境人民币结算产生正向显著影响。投资开放度与金融发展对东部地区影响显著,贸易开放度对中西部地区影响显著。基于研究结论,从实现跨境人民币结算的增长与平衡、发挥结算核心区集聚与扩散功能、夯实各省份跨境人民币结算“跨越式”发展基础、因地制宜推进贸易投资便利化等方面提出政策建议。
Based on the panel data of 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2021,this paper analyzes the regional gap,dynamic evolution and influencing factors of provincial cross-border RMB settlement using the methods of Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation,spatial Markov chain and so on. The results show that: 1) Provincial cross-border RMB settlement shows a spatial distribution pattern which is "high in the east of China and low in the west of China",spreading from the eastern agglomeration to the central and western regions. The overall performance of the whole country shows a "U" shaped fluctuation which presents a down and up trend,it has the largest difference in the east of China,followed by the west of China,and it has the smallest difference in the central China. The overall disparity stems mainly from interregional disparities. 2) National,eastern,central and western cross-border RMB settlements have shown an upward trend and volatility with time. The mobility of provinces with different levels of development is high,it shows the leapfrogging development pattern which is in order as follows: low mobility,medium-low mobility,medium-high mobility and high mobility,while it is relatively difficult to develop from the medium-high mobility to the high mobility. 3) Investment openness,trade openness and financial development have a positive and significant impact on cross-border RMB settlement. Investment openness and financial development have a significant impact in the eastern region,and trade openness has a significant impact in the central and western regions. Based on the research conclusions,policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of realizing the growth and balance of cross-border RMB settlement,giving full play to the agglomeration and diffusion function of the RMB settlement in core areas,consolidating the "leapfrogging" development foundation of cross-border RMB settlement in various provinces,and promoting trade and investment facilitation according to local conditions.
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