中国和平崛起使世界地缘政治格局发生巨变,崛起国和霸权国通过权力博弈争夺小国的支持与追随,小国则对大国双方有不同战略倾向,由此导致权力博弈与国家间关系极为复杂。文章在借鉴领土陷阱、战略三角与对冲战略等理论基础上,构建了地缘位势与双边关系互动规律探讨的分析框架,并以中美在东盟十国的地缘博弈为案例,研究得出以下结论：①中美在文莱、菲律宾和印度尼西亚的地缘位势博弈处于竞争激烈的权力博弈区,而在其他国家则处于博弈较缓和的权力介稳区。②结合中美与东盟十国双边关系定量计算结果,东盟十国对冲战略可以分为三类：菲律宾、缅甸、文莱、新加坡表现出明显的制衡;老挝、柬埔寨属于追随;越南、马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚则属于对冲。③不同权力博弈烈度下小国不同的对冲战略选择导致中美在东盟的地缘位势与双边关系表现出5种互动类型,即老挝、柬埔寨为追随型,泰国、越南和马来西亚为束缚型,新加坡和缅甸为防范型,印度尼西亚为牵制型,菲律宾和文莱为制衡型。最后,依据中美与东盟国家表现出的不同互动规律,提出了重点深耕、努力维持、尽力争取和适度防范4种分国别的经略手段。
China's peaceful rise has resulted in a dramatic shift in the world's geopolitical situation. Rising powers and hegemonic states compete for the support and follow-up of small countries through power games, while smaller countries have varied strategic dispositions towards the two major powers,resulting in complicated power games and inter-state relations. This paper constructs an analytical framework for exploring the interactive dynamics between geopolitical potential and bilateral relations,with the theoretical foundations of the territorial trap,strategic triangle,and hedging strategy. Taking the geopolitical game between China and the United States in ASEAN's ten countries as a case study, the following findings have been found that: 1) In Brunei, Philippines and Indonesia, the geo-potential game between China and the United States is in the highly competitive power game zone, whereas it is in the more moderate power game zone in other countries. 2) Combined with the quantitative calculation results of bilateral relations between China and the United States with ASEAN countries, ASEAN's hedging strategy can be divided into three categories: balance type (the Philippines, Myanmar, Brunei, and Singapore), follower type (Laos and Cambodia), and hedging type (Vietnam,Malaysia,Thailand,and Indonesia). 3) Under different power game intensities,different hedging strategy choices by small countries result in five types of interactions between China and the United States geo-potential and bilateral relations in ASEAN: follower type (Laos and Cambodia),binder type (Thailand,Vietnam,and Malaysia),preventer type (Singapore and Myanmar), restraint type (Indonesia), balance type( the Philippines and Brunei). Finally,four strategic measures tailored to individual countries are proposed based on the different interaction patterns displayed by China and the United States with ASEAN countries: in-depth cultivation,hard maintenance,utmost striving, and moderate precautions.
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