以Wish平台注册商户位置大数据为主要数据源,综合运用DBSCAN聚类等地理可视化方法和面板回归模型分析方法,探究了2014—2018年我国大陆地区跨境电商时空格局变化及其影响机制。结果表明,该时段内跨境电商注册数量先增后降,形成了以北京、郑州、上海、义乌、长沙、成都、泉州、深圳为聚集中心的8个聚集区,而且“核心—边缘”分布特征明显。国内经济规模积累、知识经济与技术扩散、产业结构优化有助于跨境电商数量增长。片面追求外向型经济和服务型经济增长不利于跨境电商的发展。总体来看,我国跨境电商发展已进入经济高质量驱动阶段。文章提出了构建国内国际双循环相互促进跨境电商发展政策建议。
Current research has seldom focused on the spatial-temporal dynamics of cross-border e-commerce in China. Using on the big data of the location of registered merchants on the Wish platform,this paper studied the spatial-temporal dynamics of cross-border e-commerce in China's mainland from 2014 to 2018 and its influencing mechanisms based on the DBSCAN spatial clustering algorithm and panel regression model. Results show that: 1) The number of cross-border e-commerce registration increased first and then decreased. Eight clusters which centered on Beijing,Zhengzhou,Shanghai,Yiwu,Changsha,Chengdu,Quanzhou and Shenzhen presented the characteristics of the core-periphery spatial structure. 2) The huge volume of domestic economy,the knowledge economy and technology diffusion,as well as industrial structure optimization can contribute to the growth of cross-border e-commerce. 3) One-sided pursuit of export-oriented and service-oriented economic growth was not conducive to the development of cross-border e-commerce. The cross-border e-commerce in China has generally entered a stage of high-quality economic driven development. In this regard,this study proposed specific policies to build dual circulation so as to promote the development of cross-border e-commerce.
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