“三农”问题始终是我国现代化建设的根本问题,因而在工业活动中权衡收益与成本,关注其对农民生产生活的影响也至关重要。文章以农村固定观察点为样本,采用前沿的交叠双重差分（DID）方法,探讨采矿活动作为外生变量冲击对于周边农户粮食产出及家庭收入的影响。实证发现,采矿活动冲击会导致周边农户的粮食产出减少约20%,且一定时间内影响加剧,在不同识别框架中均稳健。粮食种植面积、家庭教育水平、是否位于粮食主产区等因素显著调节了家庭户所受负面影响,使不同特征的农户受影响程度不同。这些负面效应来源于减少投入和降低生产率两个渠道,生产率的降低一方面在要素投入既定的情形下减少了产出,即形成“阶梯产量”;另一方面又使得周边农户自觉减少要素投入,形成“弃种”现象。此外,采矿活动也显著影响了周边农户收入,使得种粮收入下降。总收入越低的家庭更“惜粮”“储粮”,经济福利损失更高,且可能导致总收入进一步降低;而总收入较高的家庭则相反。采矿活动对周边农户而言其收益不一定能抵消其成本,甚至可能导致贫富分化的“马太效应”。因此,政策应加强对矿区农民的精准福利补偿,切实保障农民利益。
The issues relating to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers have always been the fundamental issues in China's modernization,so it is important to weigh the benefits and costs of industrial activities and pay attention to their impacts on farmers' production and livelihoods. This paper investigates the impact of mining activities on the grain output and income of surrounding farmers by using a frontier staggered difference-in-difference method with samples of fixed rural observation sites. It's found that mining activities reduce the grain output of the surrounding farm households by about 20%,and the impact intensifies over time and is robust across different identification frameworks. Households with different characteristics have different degrees of negative impact,and factors such as planting acreage of grain,household education level,and location in major grain-producing region all significantly moderate their impact. These negative effect comes from both input reduction and productivity reduction. Productivity reduction reduces the grain output under the condition of stable factor input and also affect farmers who consciously reduce the factor input,resulting in the phenomenon of "abandonment of planting". In addition,mining activities significantly affect the income of neighboring farmers,resulting in the income decrease from grain cultivation and the income increase from wages,and has no significant change in final total income. The lower the total income,the higher the economic welfare loss. For surrounding farmers,the benefits of mining activities may not necessarily offset the cost,and may even lead to the "Matthew effect" (the polarization of wealth). Therefore,it should strengthen the precise compensation for farmers in mining areas to effectively protect their interests.
[1] 廖开妍,杨锦秀,曾建霞. 农业技术进步、粮食安全与农民收入——基于中国31个省份的面板数据分析[J]. 农村经济,2020(4):60-67.
[2] 李红莉,张俊飚,童庆蒙. 增产是否增收?——基于粮食主产区设立的准自然实验研究[J]. 华中农业大学学报:社会科学版,2022(1):105-115.
[3] 辛岭,刘衡,胡志全. 我国农业农村现代化的区域差异及影响因素分析[J]. 经济纵横,2021(12):101-114.
[4] 齐蘅,吴玲. 我国粮食主产区粮食生产与收入水平的协调度分析[J]. 经济地理,2017,37(6):156-163.
[5] 杨青林,赵荣钦,赵涛,等. 县域尺度农业碳排放效率与粮食安全的关系[J/OL]. 中国农业资源与区划,http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.3513.S.20220517.1353.008.html,2022-05-17:1-17.
[6] 陈洪波,曹孜,马丽. 国外采矿业社会影响研究综述[J]. 生态经济,2014,30(10):77-81.
[7] Mishra P.Coal mining and rural livelihoods:Case of the Ib valley coalfield,Orissa[J]. Economic and Political Weekly,2009,44(44):117-123.
[8] 马军. 矿产资源开发对农业环境的影响及政策建议[J]. 农业技术与装备,2017(9):27-28.
[9] Aragon F M,Rud J P.Natural resources and local communities:Evidence from a Peruvian gold mine[J]. American Economic Journal:Economic Policy,2013,5(2):1-25.
[10] Mishra P P,Pujari A K.Impact of mining on agricultural productivity:A Case Study of the Indian State of Orissa[J]. South Asia Economic Journal,2008,9(2):337-350.
[11] Pozo C,Paucarmayta V.Impact of mining on agricultural production in Peru and Transmission Channels[J]. Journal of Latin American Studies,2017,39(5):110-124,157.
[12] Hota P,Behera B.Coal mining in Odisha:An analysis of impacts on agricultural production and human health[J]. The Extractive Industries and Society,2015,2(4):683-693.
[13] Wei J,Guo X,Marinova D,et al.Industrial SO2 pollution and agricultural losses in China:evidence from heavy air polluters[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2014,64:404-413.
[14] Goodman-Bacon A.Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2021(2):254-277.
[15] Sun L,Abraham S.Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects[J]. Journal of Econometrics,2021(2):175-199.
[16] Goltz J,Barnwal P.Mines:The local wealth and health effects of mineral mining in developing countries[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2019,139:1-16.
[17] De Chaisemartin C,D'Haultfoeuille X. Difference-in-differences estimators of intertemporal treatment effects[R]. National Bureau of Economic Research,2022.
