“生产—生活—生态”空间（即“三生”空间）冲突定量研究能够为构建高质量发展的国土空间格局提供理论支撑。基于1990、2000、2010和2020年四期土地利用遥感监测数据,采用转移矩阵和空间冲突综合指数模型,对湖北省“三生”空间冲突演化特征进行分析,并进一步采用GWR和地理探测器模型对“三生”空间冲突演化影响因素进行探究,结果显示：①湖北省“三生”空间分布格局整体上保持一致,其结构呈现出生产空间减少、生活空间和生态空间增加的趋势,以农业生产空间减少、工业生产空间和城镇生活空间增加最为显著。②研究期内湖北省“三生”空间平均冲突水平由0.63上升到0.67,且呈现出明显的地域差异;较弱及弱空间冲突占主体地位,较强和强空间冲突增加最为显著,集聚程度不断提高,由点状零星分布发展到面状集聚分布,表明局部地区人类干扰活动持续增强。③土地利用强度、坡度、距地市中心距离、人口密度、路网密度和高程是湖北省“三生”空间冲突分异的主要影响因素,其影响效应具有明显的空间异质性,且不同地貌类型区各因子交互作用增强效应差异显著。未来湖北省应在深入实施主体功能区战略和新型城镇化战略的基础上,结合“三生”空间冲突主导影响因素制定差异化的空间管制措施,促进“三生”空间合理布局和融合发展。
The quantitative study of spatial conflicts of production-living-ecological space(PLES) can provide theoretical support for the construction of a new pattern of territorial space development and protection,and provide a scientific basis for regional sustainable development. Based on the remote sensing monitoring data of land use change/cover in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2020,this paper uses land use transfer matrix to analyze the spatio-temporal evaluation and structural transform characteristics of PLES,and identifies the main driving factors of PLES spatial conflict and the spatial heterogeneity by using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model and the geodetector model. The results show that: 1) The distribution patterns of PLES are basically the same and remain consistent as a whole in 1990,2000,2010,and 2020. The production space and the ecological space are mainly dominated by agricultural production space,and forestland ecological space respectively,presenting an aggregated distribution. The living space is mainly dominated by rural living space,presenting a dotted distribution. The largest increase is industrial production space and the largest reduction is agricultural production space. 2) During the study period,the average spatial conflict level of PLES in Hubei Province increases from 0.63 to 0.67,showing obvious regional differences. The weak and weaker spatial conflicts levels are dominant. The high and higher spatial conflict levels show an aggregated distribution and agglomeration continues to increase,presenting a development trend from dotted dispersed distribution to contiguous agglomeration distribution. The spatial conflict levels increase due to the increased landscape fragmentation and complexity. 3) The land use intensity,slope,distance to city center,population density,road density and elevation are the main factors influencing PLES spatial conflict at the 4 km×4 km grid scale in Hubei Province. There is a certain difference in the spatial variability of each independent variable. The influence degree of each factor on PLES spatial conflict is different,and the most influential factor is land use intensity. The interaction between two factors displays bi-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement,presenting that the influence of two factors is stronger than a single factor,and there is no independent factors. In the future,it should formulate differentiated spatial governance measures in combination with the leading influencing factors based on the in-depth implementation of the main functional zone strategy and the new urbanization strategy,so as to promote the rational layout and integrated development of PLES.
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