新冠肺炎疫情深刻影响了全球—地方联系,然而鲜有研究关注疫情冲击对跨国投资的具体影响及其传导路径。基于最新全球投资项目数据库,运用时间序列分解方法,能够更清晰识别疫情冲击对全球绿地投资的负向影响以及其在世界经济体间的异质性。从区域能动性视角出发,通过动态序列规整及k-means聚类算法,发现国家经济调节能力与疫情冲击程度间存在密切关联。复杂网络视角下的动态空间杜宾模型进一步揭示了疫情冲击通过地理邻近与投资网络的传导机制。疫情冲击具有显著负向的地理溢出效应,且溢出效应远高于直接效应;同时,疫情冲击在投资网络上具有正向溢出效应,疫情爆发会促进强投资关联国家的绿地投资流入。疫情背景下,各国绿地投资活动竞合并存,只有深化疫情防控国际合作才能尽可能减少疫情带来的负面影响。
The COVID-19 outbreak has profoundly affected global-local linkages,yet few studies have focused on the specific impact of the pandemic shock on cross-border investment and its transmission path. Based on the latest global investment project database,the time series decomposition method can be used to more clearly identify the negative impact of the epidemic on global greenfield investment and its heterogeneity among world economies. Based on the dynamic time series wrapping algorithm with k-means,it's found that it has the close relationship between the national economic-regulation ability and the degree of epidemic impact from the perspective of regional initiative. The dynamic spatial Durbin model reveals the transmission mechanism of the epidemic shock through geographical proximity and investment networks from the perspective of complex network. The impact of COVID-19 has a significant negative geographical spillover effect,and the spillover effect is much higher than the direct effect. At the same time,the impact of the epidemic has a positive spillover effect on the investment network,and the outbreak of the epidemic will promote the inflow of greenfield investment in countries with strong investment correlation. Against the background of the epidemic,the greenfield investment activities of various countries are interdependent and coexist. Only by deepening international cooperation in epidemic prevention and control can the negative impacts of the epidemic be minimized.
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