According to the third plenary session of the 18th central committee of the ommunist and the 13th national five-year plan, urbanization has been a important task of a all-round well-off society in 2020.But how will China's urbanization develop in the future?What is the level of urbanization in China that tends to be stable? What is the proportion of the endogenous population and the immigrant population in the scale of urbanization? These questions need to be scientifically answered.So this paper constructs the dynamic model of urbanization system of China.The model takes fully into account the key factors of economy, population and social service.Then we use the 1998-2015 years of data for historical and sensitivity analysis to verify that the model has good reproduction and robustness.Last,through the simulation of different situational patterns,we can find that the policy degree of family planning has the most influence on urbanization level, followed by GDP growth rate and least influence of energy consumption.The rate of urbanization in China will reach 71%~73% in 2035,and it will reach 76%~79% in 2050 under no circumstances.So we can conclude that China will enter the gentle stage of urbanization development in 2035.And the proportion of endogenous and immigrant population stabilized at around 1∶1 in 2035 years, and 2050 years remained between 1~1.24 in the scale of urbanization.
QIAO Wenyi
,
LI Le
,
GUAN Weihua
,
WANG Xin
,
WANG Xiaoge
. Prediction of Urbanization Level in China：2016-2050[J]. Economic geography, 2018
, 38(2)
: 51
-58
.
DOI: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2018.02.007
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