Recently, settlement intention of floating people has been a hot and key topic. Based on the dynamic data of 2015 floating population in China, we describe the spatial difference of the settlement willingness of floating people in China, using spatial analysis, trend analysis and other methods. Apart from these, spatial econometric models are built up to analyze its spatial effect. The results are as follows: (1) The spatial pattern of migrants' settlement intention in China can be described from two perspectives: in the north-south direction, the value is higher in the south than the north; in the east-west direction, it exists a trend of U-shaped. Meanwhile, the positive spatial autocorrelation between the settlement intention of urban floating people and cities at prefecture-level and above is apparently significant. (2)internal factors of settlement intention of urban floating people play more important role than external factors. Among internal factors, social network, resource incentive mechanism and social integration influence the intention greatly, social economics and tolerance are key variables among external factors. (3) There exists spatial outflow effect in settlement intention. Its macro-carrier is outflow effect of urban characters and the micro-carrier is the social and cultural outflows caused by the change of social network.
GU Hengyu
,
XIAO Fan
,
SHEN Tiyan
,
LIU Ziliang
. Spatial Difference and Influencing Factors of Settlement Intention of Urban Floating Population in China: Evidence from the 2015 National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey[J]. Economic geography, 2018
, 38(11)
: 22
-29
.
DOI: 10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2018.11.003
[1] Fu Y,Gabriel S A.Labor migration,human capital agglomera-tion and regional development in China[J].Regional Science & Urban Economics,2012,42(3):473-484.
[2] Massey D S,Arango J,Hugo G,et al.Theories of International Migration:A Review and Appraisal[J].Population & Development Review,1993,19(3):431-466.
[3] 林李月,朱宇. 中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1 696-1 709.
[4] Wu F. Neighborhood Attachment,Social Participation,andWill-ingness to Stay in China’s Low-Income Communities[J].Urban Affairs Review,2012,48(4):547-570.
[5] Fan C C.Settlement intention and split households:Findings from a survey of migrants in Beijing's urban villages[J].China Review,2011,11(2):11-41.
[6] Chen J,Wang W.Economic incentives and settlement intentions of rural migrants:Evidence from China[J].Journal of Urban Affairs,2018,https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2018.1439339.
[7] Annell J,Terman F.What does it take to make them stay?:how place satisfaction relates to willingness to stay of the creative class[D].Kristianstad:Kristianstad University,2017:1-80.
[8] 杨东亮. 东北流出流入人口的城市居留意愿比较研究[J].人口学刊,2016,38(5):34-44.
[9] 于潇,陈新造. “90后”流动青年的广东城市居留意愿及影响因素研究[J].商业研究,2017,59(5):177-183.
[10] 侯建明,李晓刚. 我国流动老年人口居留意愿及其影响因素分析[J].人口学刊,2017(6):62-70.
[11] 陈志光. 农业转移人口长期居留意愿研究[J].山东师范大学学报:人文社会科学版,2016,61(4):147-156.
[12] 张华初,曹玥,汪孟恭. 社会融合对广州市流动人口长期居留意愿的影响[J].西北人口,2015(1):7-11.
[13] 梁海艳. 边疆地区流动人口基本特征及居留意愿[J].人口与社会,2017,33(2):59-67.
[14] 孙鹃娟,刘洋洋. 北京市农民工的群体特征及其留京意愿探讨[J].北京社会科学,2015(9):76-80.
[15] 杨政,罗雅楠. 北京市乡城流动人口长期居留意愿研究[J].人口与社会,2015,31(1):69-80.
[16] 蔚志新. 分地区流动人口居留意愿影响因素比较研究——基于全国5城市流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].人口与经济,2013(4):12-20.
[17] 扈新强. 新、老两代流动人口居留意愿差异研究——以北京、上海、广州为例[J].调研世界,2017(7):28-32.
[18] 杨巧,李鹏举. 新生代农民工家庭发展能力与城市居留意愿——基于2014年“流动人口动态监测调查”数据的实证研究[J].中国青年研究,2017(10):50-56.
[19] 李树茁,王维博,悦中山. 自雇与受雇农民工城市居留意愿差异研究[J].人口与经济,2014(2):12-21.
[20] 国家统计局. 中国城市统计年鉴2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[21] 崔娜娜,冯长春,宋煜. 北京市居住用地出让价格的空间格局及影响因素[J].地理学报,2017,72(6):1 049-1 062.
[22] 沈体雁,冯等田,孙铁山. 空间计量经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2010.
[23] 肖凡,任建造,伍敏冬,等. 21世纪以来中国高新技术企业的时空分布和影响机制[J].经济地理,2018,38(2):27-35.
[24] Li T,Fu W.Spatial processes of regional innovation in Guang-dong Province,China:empirical evidence using a spatial panel data model[J].Asian Journal of Technology Innovation,2015,23(3):304-320.
[25] Anselin L,Bera A K,Florax R,et al.Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence[J].Regional Science & Urban Economics,1996,26(1):77-104.