This study establishes a dual-scale evaluation system for the high-quality development of marine tourism at both the provincial and municipal levels. Utilizing the BP neural network model and kernel density estimation, it comprehensively measures the high-quality development level of marine tourism in 11 provincial-level regions and 56 coastal cities in China from 2011 to 2022. It systematically compares and analyzes the spatio-temporal differentiation patterns across both provincial and municipal scales. Based on the institutional logic theory of "government-technology-market", it employs dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to identify differentiated development pathways at both scales. The findings indicate that: 1) In terms of temporal evolution, it exhibits fluctuating and phased characteristics at provincial level, and demonstrate an overall positive development trend at municipal level. 2) In terms of type structure and spatial differentiation, it displays a spindle-shaped structure with "low-lower-high-higher" levels, expanding inwardly and contracting outwardly, accompanied by significant maritime differentiation that transitions from "multiple points of development" to "north-south differentiation" at provincial level. It exhibits a pyramid structure with "low-lower-high-higher" levels decreasing gradually from bottom to top, highlighting the agglomeration effect of urban agglomerations at municipal level. 3) In terms of development pathways, it is driven by the synergy of technology and market at provincial level, and driven by the multifaceted interplay among government, technology, and market at municipal level. The research conclusions provide theoretical support for systematically evaluating the dimensions and logical relationships of high-quality development of marine tourism across both provincial and municipal scales, offering pathway guidance and decision-making basis for promoting the high-quality development of marine tourism in China.
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