It is of great significance to achieve the carbon peak and carbon neutrality of tourism industry for the realization of the national "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals" and the high-quality development of tourism industry. Firstly,tourism carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon sinks in Hainan Province from 2000 to 2020 were calculated. Then,GDIM,Monte Carlo simulation and scenario analysis were used to decompose and predict the carbon peak path of domestic and inbound tourism. Meanwhile,grey model and Markov chain were used to predict the allocated carbon sinks of tourism industry. Finally,based on the forecast results of tourism carbon emissions and carbon sinks,this paper explore the realization of carbon neutrality under different scenarios and different tourist markets. The results showed that: 1) From 2000 to 2020,both tourism carbon emissions and ecosystem carbon sinks increased in Hainan. The proportion of domestic tourism carbon emissions and allocated carbon sinks in domestic tourism gradually increased,while the proportion of inbound tourism carbon emissions gradually decreased and was significantly affected by the COVID-19. 2) The most important driving factors of tourism carbon emissions in domestic and inbound tourism are tourism economy scale and investment scale,which are absolute factors. While the factors contributing to the reduction of tourism carbon emissions are tourism economy carbon intensity and investment carbon intensity,which are relative factors. 3) The carbon peak time of domestic tourism in Hainan is 2035 as the baseline development scenario,2030 as the sustainable development scenario,2026 as the low-carbon development scenario. The peaks under the three scenarios were 3470.74×104 tons,359.02×104 tons and 326.84×104 tons respectively. The peak value of inbound tourism carbon emissions is at 7.38×104 tons in 2035 under the baseline development scenario,while it has already peaked under other scenarios. 4) The carbon sink that can be allocated to tourism increases year by year,the carbon sink that can be allocated to domestic tourism increases,while the carbon sink that can be allocated to inbound tourism decreases. Domestic tourism in Hainan Province will realize the carbon neutral goal in 2044,while inbound tourism already realize the carbon neutral goal. This study can optimize the low-carbon development policy of tourism industry,provide a reference for realizing the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals" in Hainan Province and help build the Hainan Free Trade Port and the national ecological civilization pilot zone.
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